Pitching will keep A’s Out of Contention
By Jonathan Leshanski

It’s hard imagining the Oakland A’s could be an overly competitive team in 2009.  Their offense won’t be as good as that of the Rangers, but could be as good as the Angels. Their pitching won’t be as good as the Angels, but could be as good as the Rangers.  The good news is that they should be considerably better than the Mariners.

But where does that leave them?  Are they the dark horse team of 2009, the way the Rays were in 2008 or the Rockies were in 2007?  The answer has to be probably not.  Yes, their offense should be pretty fair - the additions of Matt Holliday and Jason Giambi to a lineup that will feature a healthy Eric Chavez and Mark Ellis as well as the free swinging Jack Cust should give the team a lot of power.  Power will be key to this team, which looks atypical for a Billy Beane-constructed team. The expected team OBP looks far from outstanding.

Still, they’ll score their share of runs, maybe even more than the Angels who failed to find another middle of the lineup hitter thus far in the offseason - at least until somewhere about mid-July.  That’s when everyone expects GM Billy Beane will disassemble this team, trading away big-contract talent for top prospects.

And it may well be that their pitching will be their biggest weakness.  Their top pitcher going into next season will be Justin Duchscherer (10-8, 2.54 ERA) followed by Dallas Braden, who has a grand total of 24 big league starts and then Dana Eveland, who had a very promising rookie season (9-9 4.34 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP).  But that’s not exactly one-two-three that will scare the heck out of anyone.  So the A’s look likely to give up a lot of runs, too. 

But the question remains if this really is a Billy Beane team.  Few people think so, but rather think that the A’s acquired Holliday on the cheap and will flip him by midseason.  Even if that’s not true, this A’s team just doesn’t match up well with Texas or LA.  Still, as we’ve seen in recent years you can’t count anyone out. A few lucky breaks in Oakland and a few bad breaks for the Angels and Rangers and anything can happen.

But I wouldn’t bet the farm on it.

Prime Chance for A’s
By Daniel Paulling 

A glance at the American League West standings from last season shows the Athletics have a tough hill to climb to compete this season. They finished 24.5 games behind the division-winning Angels last year. Heck, they finished behind the second place Texas Rangers.  

As crazy as it sounds, the A’s are prime candidates to contend in 2009. Not only that, but there is a good chance they win the division. 

Perhaps the biggest factor in Oakland’s favor is luck. The Angels finished 12 games ahead of their Pythagorean record (100-62 vs. 88-74) and 10 games over .500 in one-run games (31-21). If the two teams replayed the 2008 season and the Angels had a little more bad luck, Oakland could easily gain 10 games in the standings. 

Furthermore, the Angels lost a lot of talent to free agency. Mark Teixeira and Francisco Rodriguez bolted for different boroughs in New York City. Jon Garland signed with the Arizona Diamondbacks, while Garret Anderson, who finished second in batting average and home runs in 2008, figures to leave the Angels. 

Oakland, meanwhile, added talent. GM Billy Beane brought back OBP-machine Jason Giambi to man the DH slot, while superstar outfielder Matt Holliday came via trade. The latter is looking for a free agent contract, which should help spur some quality numbers. Throw in the facts that a few of the A’s players, like Daric Barton and Dana Eveland, should improve due to maturing at the major league level and Eric Chavez and Bobby Crosby are healthy, and there could be significant improvement by the A’s. 

It doesn’t make much sense to bet against Oakland in 2009. The Angels are weak, the division is not as strong as some would think and the A’s could be much better than anyone projects. 

Who is going to win the AL West next season? Let us hear your opinion in our comments section below.

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