At Home Plate - Projections at the Break

At Home Plate

Written by Tony Meale (Contact & Archive) on July 13, 2009

All right, ladies and gentlemen, it's halftime. More or less.

If the season ended today, the following teams would make the playoffs: Boston, New York (Yankees), Detroit, Los Angeles (Angels), Philadelphia, St. Louis, Los Angeles (Dodgers) and San Francisco.

But as we all know, the season doesn't end today; there's still a solid three months of baseball to go. Here's a look at which first-place teams will -- and won't -- be atop the standings after 162 games.

AL East

Right Now: Red Sox
After 162: Red Sox

With Ortiz having rediscovered his power stroke, the Red Sox will be hard to stop.

Photo by Waldo Jaquith, used under creative commons license.

The Skinny: For a team that hasn't lost to the Yankees this season, the Red Sox should be leading the division by more than three games. That said, until the Yankees can prove they can actually beat Boston, you have to give the Red Sox the edge in East. Granted, it'd be crazy to think Boston will be this good against New York after the break, but they have better starting pitching (thanks, Jon Lester), a better bullpen and David Ortiz seems to have found his swing at least somewhat (11 homers in his last 31 games). Tim Wakefield making the All-Star team is further evidence that the Red Sox can do no wrong.

AL Central

Right Now: Tigers
After 162: White Sox

The Skinny: The Tigers have a sick, sick offense, but they'll need Justin Verlander to be lights out the rest of the way to make the playoffs. The White Sox, meanwhile, have a pretty potent offense themselves. Besides, Chicago is the only team in the division that has a winning record on the road (23-22). It's only by one game, but sometimes one game can make the difference.

AL West

Right Now: Angels
After 162: Rangers

The Skinny: It seems like the Angels always find a way to keep it together, but losing Vladimir Guerrero (strained knee) and Torii Hunter (strained abductor) at the same time hurts; most teams can't lose their Nos. 3 and 4 hitters and not miss a beat. Neither injury appears serious, but both could be out up to a month. The Rangers' offense is absolutely loaded and Kevin Millwood has provided consistency at the top of the rotation. But if Texas, which trails the Angels by just a game and a half, plans on making a run, now is the time to do so.

AL Wild Card

Right Now: Yankees
After 162: Yankees

The Skinny: New York couldn't miss the playoffs two years in a row, could they? Getting rid of Joe Torre was the most asinine thing the Yankees could have done. Anybody else think it's just a coincidence that the Torre-led Dodgers made the playoffs last year and currently have the best record in baseball in 2009? Meanwhile, the Yankees are playing second fiddle to the Red Sox. Really, even if New York wins the Wild Card -- or even if it wins the division -- does it really matter? This team is not built for October, and Boston will make that point abundantly clear in the playoffs.

NL East

Right Now: Phillies
After 162: Phillies

The Skinny: Rather than passing the Mets with a late-season surge yet again, the Phillies should win the division fairly easily with little resistance from Florida or Atlanta. Cole Hamels hasn't been the Cole Hamels of 2008; that we know. But the Phillies have enough pitching to get the job done, and with that offense, they're never out of a game. New York, for its part, has the most talented DL in all of baseball. Sure, the Mets have been down on their luck with injuries this year, but maybe they're just tossing in the towel early to rid themselves of the choking stigma. In the words of Bob Uecker a la Major League: "Personally, I just think he's trying to get out of the lineup."

NL Central

Right Now: Cardinals
After 162: Cardinals

Back from his injuries, Chris Carpenter will try to carry the Cardinals back to the playoffs.

Photo by Mike Tigas, used under creative commons license.

The Skinny: Albert Pujols hogs the headlines -- and for good reason -- but the rest of the offense is filling out nicely, particularly Ryan Ludwick. Chris Carpenter has returned to Cy Young form, and Adam Wainwright has been one of the best No. 2 starters in baseball this year. The Cubs, which many thought would run away with the division, have had problems with character and consistency all season. They'll make a run at the end, but look for St. Louis to hang on.

NL West

Right Now: Dodgers
After 162: Dodgers

The Skinny: Did I mention the Dodgers have Joe Torre? Did I mention they have the best record in baseball? Oh, and they also have Manny Ramirez back in the three-spot of the best top-to-bottom offense in the NL. The pitching could be a bit better, but with Broxton and Billingsley, that's more than enough.

NL Wild Card

Right Now: Giants
After 162: Giants

The Skinny: I never though the Giants would be above .500 at this point season -- much less 10 games over. But with Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Randy Johnson and recent no-no man Jonathan Sanchez, San Francisco has an extremely solid foursome in its rotation. The offense, of course, doesn't exactly scare you; after all, Pablo Sandoval -- not exactly a household name just yet -- leads the team in average (.333), homers (15) and RBI (55). But pitching tends to win out West, and the Giants certainly have that.

As for the playoffs, I'll keep my prediction simple at this point:

AL Champion: Red Sox

NL Champion: Dodgers

World Series Champion: Red Sox in seven

The Skinny: Boston remains a thorn in Joe Torre's side, and the fans at Fenway boo Manny mercilessly. Make that three championships in six years for the Sox.

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