Written by Adam Adkins (Contact & Archive) on May 16, 2008
Cliff Lee, you my friend are lucky. Want proof? You know I got some. Try this on for size:
Your career Hits Per 9 rate is 9.02, or basically a hit per inning. Your 2008 mark is a wee bit lower... 5.37. Falling right into line with the luck angle, Lee’s career BABIP is .300, right around normal. Quick! I got a question for you: Who thinks Lee’s 2008 mark is higher, lower, way lower or equal to his career number? If you guessed way lower, you win! Lee’s skating to the tune of .224 right now.
What’s this mean? For one, the hits will begin to fall, and probably in bunches. His ERA is .67 right now... which is really freaking good, and even if it rises by 2 runs, that’s still awesome. Does that mean that Lee is now awesome? Ehh. I have my concerns.
Why? Another one of those luck indications. His career Home Runs Per 9 rate is a lofty 1.20, or about a home run every nine innings. I could make a funny joke or some trivia question here, but you’ve already guessed it; Lee’s 2008 mark is microscopic: 0.17 HR/9 so far in 2008. Even big-time sinkerballers like CM Wang and Brandon Webb don’t have sustained marks that low. It’s a safe bet that Lee will start giving up a ton of home runs at some point, no?
Another dent in Lee’s armor, his Strikeouts Per 9 rate isn’t totally awesome, certainly not 0.67 ERA awesome. (He’s at 7.38). However, his Walks Per 9 rate is totally freaking awesome 0.67. However, and by now this is really becoming a broken record, Lee’s career rate is over four times as high at 2.93. (The career K/9 rate for Lee is 6.71, which is in the neighborhood of his 2008 number.) Lee will allow more free passes, and coupled with the expected rise in hits and home runs, I’d say a run at the All Time Record for ERA in a Single Season is in serious jeopardy.
Enjoy it while it lasts, Indians fans. Sure, Lee’s a good pitcher, but he’s closer to the 3 or 4 we all know and love him to be than the ace he’s auditioning as currently.
***
Is Travis Hafner done (lots of good news for the Indians fans today!)? It isn’t looking pretty for the big man’s future as a productive hitter, just a mere year into a four year fifty-seven million dollar deal with a thirteen million dollar club option at the end. What’s the problem?
Hafner’s lost his ability to make good contact; his hit rates are gone, but the BABIP is in the neighborhood with his career numbers. That means a couple things are possible. One, he’s not making good contact at all. Two, he’s got zero power which means even though he’s placing bat on ball, he’s not doing anything with it.
It gets worse. Hafner’s 2008 struggles aren’t out of left field at all; he sucked last year too, and it got steadily worse from Opening Day through the ALCS. Imagine it like this; Hafner’s 2005-2006 climbed the mountain (he was freaking awesome both years, especially so in 2006) and his 2007-2008 have been going down the other side, and they’re only picking up more speed.
His walk rate is also a bit down, a result of his reaching for pitches.
Can this be fixed? History says no. Big, Three True Outcome (players who either strike out, walk, or hit a home run) and Old-Players Skills guys don’t last long. PECOTA agrees.
The remaining fifty million the Indians owe Hafner could be a complete waste.
***
Smooth signings this week, if I do say so myself. The Marlins broke tradition and went long-term with a top young player this week, signing shortstop (in name, not game, only) Hanley Ramirez to a six year, $70 million dollar deal.
Big money, but it’s a wise investment. Sure, Ramirez is a butcher defensively at shortstop, but he could play an outfield corner just fine, and his bat is good enough to play anywhere. With Cameron Maybin the eventual centerfielder (I have my doubts about that, though) Ramirez and the Marlins would benefit from his moving to an easier position defensively.
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