At Home Plate - The Best AL Pitcher

At Home Plate

Written by Bjoern Hartig (Contact & Archive) on August 14, 2009

Ever since Johan Santana moved to the Mets, the title of best pitcher in the American League has been up for grabs. With Cliff Lee shipped to Philadelphia and with apologies to Josh Beckett, Justin Verlander and CC Sabathia who all may very well win the Cy Young Award this season, three hurlers have separated themselves with their performances this year: King Felix Hernandez from the Mariners, the Royal Zach Greinke and -- surprisingly still from Toronto -- Roy Halladay.

Roy Halladay gets another chance to win a Cy Young in Toronto.

Photo by Keith Allison, used under creative commons license.

All three pitch for teams not going anywhere (don’t tell me the Mariners still have a shot, they don’t), yet still have double-digits in wins (not that this would be relevant to assess their performances). They all sport ERAs south of 3 and strike out at least three times as many batters as they walk. In short, they dominate.

As always, the question is who is the best of the trio? Whom would you build your team around? If you plan long term, you obviously can not ignore the fact that Halliday (32) is much older than Greinke (25) and Hernandez (23), but let’s say we talk about the next three years only.

Halladay is obviously the most established starter of the trio. He is in his 12th year in the majors and has a career ERA of 3.45. Last year, he was able to increase his strikeout rate to a level he briefly flashed early in his career as he struck out 206 or 7.54 per nine innings this season after hovering around 5.5 the two years before and he is right at that level again in 2009. And not exactly know for wildness to begin with, he has displayed outright perfect control this season, giving up a free pass only every 7.86 innings, which is easily the best number in the American League (and only Joel Pineiro of the Cardinals is even stingier, he walks less than a batter in nine IP, but hardly strikes anybody out).

Overall, Halladay strikes out more than six times as many hitters as he walks (6.57), which puts him comfortably ahead of the AL runner up about whom we will talk about later. However, he is not unhittable as he allows a .252 average against, which is good, but not great (and in line with his career), but since he usually keeps the ball on the ground (1.97 groundball to flyball ratio), he does not give up too many extra base hits (29 2B, 14 HR so far).

Zach Greinke gives the Royals hope every fifth day.

Photo by Keith Allison, used under creative commons license.

Zach Greinke has been nothing but dominant since he came back to the Majors after he left the Royals spring training camp with social anxiety disorder and depression. Since then, he has pitched two and a half seasons and is continuously getting better. Increasing his K/9 from 7.82 to 8.14 to 9.43 while at the same time decreasing his BB/9 from 2.66 to 2.49 to 1.86 has turned his ERA from good (3.69 and 3.47) to exceptional (2.43 this year). His K/BB ratio of 5.06 is second only to Roy Halladay in the American League. He also is not unhittable (.250 against), but he rarely gives up a long ball (only 7 so far this year or 0.4 per 9 IP) and you could make the case that he actually been a bit unlucky as his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is .336 (while values around .300 are normal), suggesting that his ERA should been even lower that it currently is.

The last pitcher in our analysis is Felix Hernandez. Despite being only 23 years old, Hernandez is already a veteran pitcher in his fifth year. The right-hander has been nicknamed King even before he reached the majors and since at first, the results have been rather common than royal, you could make the case that Felix has become underrated by now. But look at the trend of his ERA the last four years: 4.52 – 3.93 – 3.45 – 2.72. That’s quite impressive. If he continues this trend, he will not give up a run in all of 2015. Obviously, this is not going to happen, but if you consider that Hernandez is still five years removed from what should be his prime year at age 28, the trend is quite scary. At least for any team outside of Seattle, that is.

The King gets better every year.

Photo by Matt McGee, used under creative commons license.

However, Hernandez has not shown the same clear and steady improvement in his periphals as Greinke has. His K/9 rate had dipped under 8 the last two years after he started out around 8.2. It stands at 8.6 this year, a new career high. Hernandez also does not have the control of Halladay or Greinke. Despite having his best full season so far in 2008, he walked more batters than ever before (3.59 BB/9) that year. He has lowered that number to 2.89 in 2009, but his K/BB ratio of nearly 3 is not in the same class as Halladay or Greinke. Then what is the reason behind his steady improvement in ERA? It’s a combination of getting more difficult to hit and stranding more runners on base. His BABIP is decreasing regularly and stands now at .301 (which is normal) -- leading to a .237 average against this year -- while at the same time his left-on-base-percentage has increased to 78% from 68% in 2006. All these improvements may be interpreted as regression to the mean, but they could also be a sign of the King maturing and learning his craft as a major league pitcher. Lastly, Hernandez is getting better and better in preventing the long ball (0.65 HR/9 this year) .

We could go on and on and look into more and more advanced statistics, but I think it has become clear that all three are top notch pitchers and every team would be lucky to have an ace of that quality. So in the end, when we get back to the original question whom we want to built around, I guess it also comes down to, well, intangibles and personal taste. Personally, I like my pitchers to have exceptional control, so that rules out Hernandez. And given that we only talk about the next three years here, I think I go with Halladay, who just seems to be the surer thing to me right now, even though Greinke most likely has the higher ceiling of the two.

So what about you? Whom would you pick and why?

Recommend article:

Comments (19)

asdf

About me??? well i dont know nothing about this topic.
But i can lern ;)

This is a great inspiring article.I am pretty much pleased with your good work .

Great post really interesting writing style.

Accutane is available purely using a great scheme also known as iPLEDGE. You should be subscribedin your method and then sign docs proclaiming that you are aware of the dangers of the particular treatment so you conform to start using pregnancy prevention just like necessary for the system. Ask a doctor as well as get in touch with the drug manufacturer when you have doubts about the method as well as composed conditions.

Accutane is for sale mostly within a advanced method named iPLEDGE. You must be enlistedin the services and also put your signature on docs stating that you are aware of the dangers of the particular medication and you agree to need birth control that necessary for the program. Consult with your physician or simply get in touch with the actual drug producer in case you have concerns about the offer or maybe drafted conditions.

I just couldn't leave your website before saying that I really like this article. there's a good chance to receive a perfect concept in your mind. the quality information you offer to your visitors

I am very pleased to have this chance to read your article and feeling really satisfied. You have a rare source of information and define your topic in very well way. It is writes in very good style and unique. I like this. Thanks for this.

I am happy to watch this you tube video at this site, thus now I am also going to upload all my movies at YouTube web site.

This article is well thought out and full of good information. Many Thanks for taking time to bring this together into one article.

Its not the case that reader must be completely agreed with author's views about article. So this is what happened with me, anyways its a good effort, I appreciate it. Thanks

Superhero were amazing at Soul Survivor, the whole of my youth group really enjoyed them!

I am happy to find so many useful information about Boat Speed here in the post, a good player can change the situation using these tips, thanks for sharing

I would like to thank you for your nicely written post, its informative and your writing style encouraged me to read it till end. Thanks

This classic reissue is enduring. First, it was known as the nike air max or the Air Max III until it was reissued. It then was resurfaced under the name of nike air max 90 in 2000. The classic sneakers have lots of nice qulities, among which its stunning color combining is specially outstanding. It is the stunning color conbining that makes the shoes populai with people.

I'm sure that is a good weblog, and i'm super serious to read the item. I think you'll provides more information which happens to be useful for just about all. thanks

Your website is consequently interesting. I’m thankful for the information in which you’ve on this website. The idea uncovers exactly how effectively you recognize this particular topic. Book-marked this web web page, will return for really articles or blog posts. I found merely the facts I personally witout a doubt searched throughout the position and would not run into.

Great information, precious and excellent design, when share good things along with ideas and concepts, lots of great info and motivation. Many thanks the fantastic information and facts. And thanks for discussing.

Herbal bud appended this process for useful favorite songs cellphone technique relationship pub for the I have to make out the print the moment. Many of us acknowledge your niche points of views you have made, nevertheless wish to contemplate a couple of characteristics, not to mention Write down firmly enjoyment of your family belief. It really is without saying That you ought to lower back another day, rather arty. Cya with regards to finally.