Answer quickly now: Who was the better left fielder in 2005, Manny Ramirez or Jason Bay?
Do you have the answer in your head? OK, well's here's another one I would like you to answer quickly: Who was the better left fielder in 2005: Miguel Cabrera or Jason Bay?
OK, last one: Who was the better outfielder in 2005: Gary Sheffield or Jason Bay?
Got your answers? I'm betting none of your answers were Jason Bay, and if you were among the many who were reading this column and choosing the established stars over Bay, I'm here to tell you, you were dead wrong.
That's right, the Pittsburgh Pirates left fielder was better than the 2004 World Series MVP, and the baby-faced youngster from Florida, and the man with the quickest bat in baseball. You don't believe me? Well, let's take a look at some stats to prove the point. Let's start with the first question:
| Name | Year | AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Bay | 2005 | 599 | 0.306 | 0.402 | 0.559 | 0.961 | 32 | 101 |
| Manny Ramirez | 2005 | 554 | 0.292 | 0.388 | 0.594 | 0.982 | 45 | 144 |
"See Frank, you're wrong. Just look at the RBIs and HRs, Ramirez beats Bay in both categories. Plus his OPS is 22 points higher."
Is this what you're saying right now? I bet it is; because I would say the same thing after just looking at the above stats. But, let me add a few more statistics to try and sway your opinion a bit. Let's take a look at each players stolen base numbers, fielding ability using Dave Pinto's PMR, and total production (offense, stolen bases, and defense) as represented by WARP3 over at Baseball Prospectus:
To read more about Dave Pinto's PMR fielding evaluation please visit this link and scroll throughout the page to figure out how it was created and what goes into it. This method is widely regarded as the best fielding evaluation method that is publicly available today.
| Name | Year | AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | RBI | SB | CS | PMR | (Lg. Rank) | WARP3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Bay | 2005 | 599 | 0.306 | 0.402 | 0.559 | 0.961 | 32 | 101 | 21 | 1 | 0.00116 | (27 of 43) | 10.6 |
| Manny Ramirez | 2005 | 554 | 0.292 | 0.388 | 0.594 | 0.982 | 45 | 144 | 1 | 0 | -.00388 | (38 of 43) | 8.1 |
Just the fact that Bay can run faster than a tortoise makes him a better base runner than Manny Ramirez. His fielding ability, while slightly below average, still doesn't hurt his team and it makes him a much better glove than Ramirez. That last number, WARP3, truly shows which player was better.
Let's move onto the second question now, about Miguel Cabrera compared to Jason Bay. Most people, just as they did with Ramirez, will quickly say that Cabrera was the better left fielder in 2005. But, just like with Ramirez, they would be wrong. Check out the numbers:
| Name | Year | AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | RBI | SB | CS | PMR | (Lg. Rank) | WARP3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Bay | 2005 | 599 | 0.306 | 0.402 | 0.559 | 0.961 | 32 | 101 | 21 | 1 | 0.00116 | (27 of 43) | 10.6 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 2005 | 613 | 0.323 | 0.385 | 0.561 | 0.946 | 33 | 116 | 1 | 0 | -.00706 | (42 of 43) | 9.3 |
Not only was Bay just a better overall player in 2005, he was a better hitter as well.
Now, to the last question comparing Gary Sheffield and Bay. Check out the numbers:
| Name | Year | AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | RBI | SB | CS | PMR | (Lg. Rank) | WARP3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Bay | 2005 | 599 | 0.306 | 0.402 | 0.559 | 0.961 | 32 | 101 | 21 | 1 | 0.00116 | (27 of 43) | 10.6 |
| Gary Sheffield | 2005 | 584 | 0.291 | 0.379 | 0.512 | 0.891 | 34 | 123 | 10 | 2 | .00382 | (15 of 41 RFs) | 8.1 |
Bay was clearly the better player here, but surprisingly not the better fielder. Believe it or not, Sheffield is actually a very proficient fielder, but his hitting at this point in his career isn't anywhere near Bay's skill giving the Pirates leftfielder the edge.
OK, so I've shown some stats that prove Bay had a better season in 2005 than Manny Ramirez, Gary Sheffield, and Miguel Cabrera, but what is my point? My point is that Jason Bay is the best player that nobody knows about in baseball today.
Don't worry though, because you aren't the only one who doesn't know about Jason Bay. Check out the AL and NL MVP voting results from last season and see that all three of the above mentioned players finished higher on their respective ballot:
AL MVP Voting results
NL MVP Voting results
All three players received many more voting points than Bay, and Cabrera actually finished a full seven spots ahead of Bay in the NL!
As of this moment, Bay's only problem is that he strikes out too often. By fanning 142 times in 707 plate appearances in 2005 Bay's K% was .2008 versus an NL average of .1699. But, when you see that Bay struck out 129 times in 467 PA's (.2762) in 2004, you can see that he is improving in this facet of the game. Also, it is worth noting that his minor league strikeout numbers (226 K/1204 PA=.1877) show that Bay should be improving in this category, and still has room to get better.
After looking at this "weak" part of Bay's game, it's all good from here on out. He draws more than his fair share of walks, represented by his 95 free passes last season (BB% of .1344). His power is well above average, as shown by his career .258 ISOP which should only improve as he turns some of those 44 doubles he hit last season into HR's as he matures. His ability to steal bases is off-the-charts which becomes even easier to see when you look at his minor league SB total of 89 versus only 18 CS's (83%). His fielding ability, while not great, doesn't impact his team negatively and since he is so young should only improve.
Jason Bay can field enough to get by, hit for average, hit for power, steal bases, and take pitches. It's pretty easy to see why the Pirates signed him to a contract extension worth $18.25 million for 4 years ($4.56 million per year). By the way, feel free to compare that yearly salary to that of Manny Ramirez and you'll see that in Jason Bay you aren't just looking at one of better players in the game today, you're looking at one of the better bargains.
Thank you for reading. If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.
