In a trade that just seemed like it was meant to happen, the Boston Red Sox traded part of their surplus starting pitching staff when they gave up Bronson Arroyo and $1.25 million in exchange for Cincinnati Reds' surplus outfielder Wily Mo Pena this past March 20th. The trade looks like a perfect fit on both ends since the Red Sox needed a power right handed bat, and the Reds needed cheap starting pitching. Both teams filled these needs with this trade, but who got the better end?
Let's take a look at some stats, and salary figures to try and figure this out:
Red Sox Receive:
Wily Mo Pena, 24 years old, Right Handed outfielder due $1.25 million in 2006, arbitration eligible:
| Year | AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | RBI | SB | CS | SB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | 18 | 0.222 | 0.222 | 0.389 | 0.611 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 2003 | 165 | 0.218 | 0.283 | 0.358 | 0.641 | 5 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 60% |
| 2004 | 336 | 0.259 | 0.316 | 0.527 | 0.843 | 26 | 66 | 5 | 2 | 71% |
| 2005 | 311 | 0.254 | 0.304 | 0.492 | 0.796 | 19 | 51 | 2 | 1 | 67% |
| 830 | 0.248 | 0.303 | 0.477 | 0.780 | 51 | 134 | 10 | 5 | 67% |
Reds Receive:
Bronson Arroyo, 29 year old, Right Handed Starting pitcher due $2.75 million in 2005, signed through 2008 for $11.25 million:
| Year | Team | G | GS | IP | W | L | SV | ERA | DERA | DIPS% | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | BABIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | PIT | 20 | 12 | 71.7 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6.40 | 4.57 | 1.40 | 11.1 | 1.3 | 4.5 | 6.3 | 0.321 |
| 2001 | PIT | 24 | 13 | 88.3 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 5.09 | 4.96 | 1.03 | 10.1 | 1.2 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 0.278 |
| 2002 | PIT | 9 | 4 | 27.0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4.00 | 3.20 | 1.25 | 10.0 | 0.3 | 5.0 | 7.3 | 0.330 |
| 2003 | BOS | 6 | 0 | 17.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2.08 | 1.96 | 1.06 | 5.2 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 7.3 | 0.208 |
| 2004 | BOS | 32 | 29 | 178.7 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 4.03 | 3.76 | 1.07 | 8.6 | 0.9 | 2.4 | 7.2 | 0.281 |
| 2005 | BOS | 35 | 32 | 205.3 | 14 | 10 | 0 | 4.51 | 4.43 | 1.02 | 9.3 | 1.0 | 2.4 | 4.4 | 0.270 |
| 126 | 90 | 588 | 33 | 33 | 1 | 4.59 | 4.19 | 1.10 | 9.3 | 0.9 | 2.9 | 5.6 | 0.282 |
The first thing to notice is that the Red Sox are getting a much younger, and cheaper player in Pena. Is he more productive than Arroyo though? This is a very hard question to answer because Pena clearly is very strong in one area of the game (power), and horrible in another aspect (patience and contact). This is very evident when you look at his season-by-season strikeout and walk percentages:
| Year | Team | PA | SO | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | CIN | 18 | 11 | 0.61110 | 0 | 0.00000 |
| 2003 | CIN | 180 | 53 | 0.29440 | 12 | 0.06670 |
| 2004 | CIN | 364 | 108 | 0.29670 | 22 | 0.06040 |
| 2005 | CIN | 335 | 116 | 0.34630 | 20 | 0.05970 |
| 897 | 288 | 0.32110 | 54 | 0.06020 |
When you look at all those percentages keep in mind that the NL average K% in 2005 was .1699, and the average BB% was .0783. As you can see Pena strikes out way too often, and doesn't draw nearly enough walks. To make matters even worse, if you look closely at the chart you'll see that he is getting worse in both areas each of the last three seasons.
But, look at his power number in his career chart above. Pena's career ISOP of .229 is much higher than the AL average of .157, and the amount of HR's he's hit in the small amount of AB's he's gotten is staggering. For his career he's hit a HR every 16.3 AB's. This is already better than the rate of his new superstar teammate David Ortiz (1 HR every 17.6 AB's).
So after weighing each of these facets of Pena's game it would only be fair to say that he is a slightly above average producer since power is such a strong facet of the game that it sometimes is worth it to sacrifice on-base skills. This fact is evident when you compare Pena's career OPS of .780 to the 2005 NL average of .741.
However, just because he's slightly above average now doesn't mean that's how he's going to stay. Remember, he is still just a kid at the age of 24, and did post an .843 OPS in 2004. The kid has a lot of time to improve, and figures to do just that. After all, how many 23 year old hit 26 HR's in approximately half a season like Pena did in 2004? Not many. The fact is that Pena is talented, and his best years are yet to come. Yes, he will most likely always strike out too often, and walk too little, but he'll also always have great power.
Any analysis of Pena's fielding is worthless since he has played so little that it is nearly impossible to get a good gauge on his true abilities. But, by reading this scouting report on Pena from The Sporting News, you can tell that he isn't much of a fielder:
"His arm is above average, but his release is slow, is inconsistent with his jumps and routes."
While this does bring his value down a small amount, it doesn't change the fact that Pena should still be looked at as a slightly above average player.
There is a positive aspect to that scouting report though; and that is the fact that he does have an above average arm which is one of the highly coveted tools at Pena's position; right field.
Back to the question at hand though: Is Pena a better player than the one he was traded for, Bronson Arroyo?
Arroyo has a below average ERA as the AL average ERA in 2005 was 4.35, and not only was Arroyo worse than this figure last season, but for his career his ERA is higher than this. But, we all know that ERA isn't the best indicator of how good a pitcher actually is. To figure that out we must look at Arroyo's peripheral numbers.
The following chart shows Arroyo's career and 2005 peripheral numbers versus the 2005 AL average in the same categories:
| HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | |
| 2005 AL League Average | 1.1 | 3.0 | 6.2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arroyo Career | 0.9 | 2.4 | 5.6 |
| Arroyo 2005 | 1.0 | 2.9 | 4.4 |
While last season Arroyo posted an extremely low K/9, I wouldn't expect it to stay that low. Expect a rebound to at least the level of league average.
After doing so it is very easy to see that Arroyo's ERA should be better than he has posted. He is above-average in all three peripheral categories, so what gives? The answer to this can be found in Arroyo's DIPS% posted above. Arroyo has had the misfortune of pitching in front of one of the worst team defenses in baseball for his entire career to date. It's no accident that in each season his ERA is at least 2% worse than expected, even adjusted for Fenway Park. The Red Sox have consistently been among the cellar dwellers in team DER and all of their pitchers are suffering as a result. Unfortunately for Arroyo, the Reds are just about as bad defensively and that isn't going to change this year, so the ERA will probably continue to run high. Moving to the NL helps, but that's about the only thing working in his favor.
When you consider this with the fact that he's five years older than Pena, whose already an above average player, and much more expensive it's clear that the Red Sox got the better end of this deal. Even though the Red Sox are sending $1.25 million to the Reds to even out the salaries of the two players this season, the Reds are still due to pay Arroyo the remaining $8.5 million he's due through 2008.
Both teams filled a need and didn't really rid themselves of anything they didn't already have with this deal, but the 2004 World Series Champions clearly got the better end of this exchange.
Thank you for reading. If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.
