I am on record this off season for saying that I was not a fan of either of the big trades the Toronto Blue Jays made this past December and January. Even though I believe new additions Troy Glaus and Lyle Overbay are very good players, I have also concluded that the talent given up to acquire them was worth more. Be that as it may, I think we can all agree that the two new corner infielders are going to absolutely rake in their first season in Toronto. Using the Serious Baseball projecting techniques you are all familiar with from previous articles of this nature, let's project a 2006 season for both of the new Blue Jays.
We'll start with Glaus.
The former Los Angeles Angel and Arizona Diamondback has battled injury problems throughout his career but has always been a great power hitter and has hit 40+ HRs twice in his eight year career. This power comes packaged with a horrible batting average brought about by a lot of strikeouts, however (career .253 hitting isn't exactly eye popping). After two injury-shortened seasons in Los Angeles in 2003 and 2004, Glaus seemed to have overcome his fragility in Arizona. He batted .258/.363/.522 with 37 HR and 97 RBI in 149 games. That fully healthy season led the Toronto Front Office to believe that Glaus can, at the very least, reproduce these numbers as a Blue Jay. He is only 29 years of age, so it is certainly possible he could run off a number of productive seasons before his next DL stint.
Taking a deeper look at Glaus' statistics last season, you can see that he is becoming more and more prone to striking out. In 2005 Glaus struck out once every 3.7 AB's, down from every 4 AB's in 2004, and 4.4 AB's in 2003. The odd thing about this tendency is that in 2003 and 2004, when Glaus was injured, he may have been striking out so much because he was overcompensating for the injury. Last season though, Glaus was as healthy as an ox and actually struck out more than he did when injured. This tells me Glaus is getting comfortable swinging uncontrollably at anything he believes he can hit. This technique has obviously worked for him overall, but it will result in absurd strike out numbers and a dropping batting average if it continues. I don't think we'll be seeing him changing his ways now, so a drop in BA can be expected at some point in the coming years.
Due to these increased strikeouts he will obviously be making less contact at the plate, which in turn will lead to a drop in batting average and hits. This is the main reason I am projecting a slight decrease in Glaus' overall production in 2006. The other reason is that he will be playing his home games in a less inhospitable park for pitchers this year. The Rogers Center in Toronto isn't a pitcher's haven, but it's a little less cozy in the summer than Chase Field in Arizona.
With all these factors in mind, Glaus' projected 2006 season in Toronto will look like so:
| PA | AB | Hits | 2B | 3B | HR | K | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| 637 | 541 | 136 | 30 | 1 | 35 | 152 | 86 | .251 | .364 | .505 | .869 |
This is a slight drop off from the season Glaus posted last year in Arizona:
| PA | AB | Hits | 2B | 3B | HR | K | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| 634 | 538 | 139 | 29 | 1 | 37 | 145 | 84 | .258 | .363 | .522 | .885 |
The Blue Jays are definitely getting a very valuable player in Glaus, and seem to have made the right assumption that at the age of 29 he can maintain his current level of production. As you can see, those two posted seasons are very similar.
Moving to the other corner of the diamond, let's take a look at the Blue Jays new first baseman, former Milwaukee Brewer Lyle Overbay.
Overbay is a very patient hitter, and has power that is still developing. In approximately two and a half seasons at the major league level, Overbay has increased his HR Rate, and his BB rate while lowering his K Rate:
All of these positive trends for a player entering his age-29 season can only lead to good things. And this is the primary reason I am projecting an improvement for Overbay in 2006 over his 2005 season in Milwaukee when he batted .276/.367/.449 with 19 HR, and 72 RBI in158 games:
| PA | AB | Hits | 2B | 3B | HR | K | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| 656 | 566 | 157 | 34 | 1 | 22 | 90 | 84 | .277 | .373 | .458 | .831 |
While this season is a definite improvement over 2005, it actually will not be Overbay's best. That title belongs to his 2004 season, spent in Milwaukee, when he batted .301/.385/.478, with 16 HRs and 87 RBI in 159 games. That season was so good because of an outrageous amount of doubles that Overbay hit, leading the league that season with fifty three. In 2005 Overbay started to turn some of those doubles into HRs, but also experienced a bit of a "fall back to earth" at the same time which led to the overall worse season. As you can see from the projected season above, I am projecting some more of that gap power to turn into HR power as I have Overbay breaking the 20 HR barrier for the first time in his career.
It is also worth noting that Overbay is excellent defensively over at first base making him one of most valuable overall first sackers in the game.
Without question the Blue Jays have improved their offense with these two new additions. This is very evident when you look at the production the Jays got from these two positions in 2005. They got a combined .763 OPS in 626 AB from first basemen, and a .781 OPS in 620 AB's from third basemen. So don't be surprised to see the Blue Jays move up the leader board in runs scored in 2006. Certainly, something better than the disappointing 9th place finish in this category within the AL they experienced last year.
Thank you for reading. If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.
