OK, well today is the day I would normally publish my first in-season Serious Baseball Power Rankings, but honestly, considering that I submit this article for publication on Monday, what would be the point? I mean, most teams will have only played one game. Should I move a team up a few spots because they are 1-0, or down a few because they are 0-1? I don't think so. Therefore, the first in-season edition of the Serious Baseball Power Rankings will be published next Wednesday.
Today I've decided to take a look at Michael Young, shortstop for the Texas Rangers. The main reason I do this is because before last season started I penned an article about how Young would go through a decline in 2005 from his 2004 numbers, and I was dead wrong. Not only did he improve in 2005, he led the American League in batting average.
Here is what I projected for him in 2005:
.292/.335/.452, 19 HR, 87 RBI, 106 Runs, 12/3 SB/CS (85/41 K/BB)
He actually hit .331/.385/.513, 24 HR, 91 RBI, 114 Runs, 5/2 SB/CS (91/58 K/BB)
It isn't hard to see Young did better than my projection. My logic behind predicting the regression was that Young was an impatient hitter and some of the balls he made contact with would stop dropping in for hits. In response to this (not like he knew or anything) Young went out and did the number one thing he could do to make himself a better hitter by increasing his walk rate. Last season his BB/PA was .0792. This was a large improvement over the .0595 he posted in 2004, and higher than the AL average of .0783.
This increased patience at the plate led to a career year for Young at the plate as he posted the highest OPS of his career in 2005 (.899). Let's try and see if he will get better, worse, or stay the same in 2006.
Something very interesting about Young has been that while he has been increasing his walk rate in recent years, he has also been striking out less, and hitting more home runs per AB. Notice these trends in Young's career K/AB, and HR/AB chart:
(The Pink line represents Young's K/AB rate, while the Blue line represents his HR/AB rate)
![[Young's stats]](sbimages/Youngstss.jpg)
While the trend in Young's HR/AB rate isn't as obvious as his K/AB rate, it is still there, and is reflected in his HR totals since 2002 (9, 14, 22, 24). While his K/AB trend is dramatic, it is worth noting that there was a slight increase last season, but nothing too harmful. Young most likely struck out at the lowest rate he possibly could in 2004, and he could only get worse from there. I project him to remain "status quo" here, with maybe a slight increase in 2006. Regardless of this, Young has become a phenomenal hitter with excellent bat control.
Before I tell you my 2006 projection though, let's take a look at Young's stolen base statistics so I can give a full stat line.
The obvious question concerning Young and his stolen base numbers is, "Why did he stop stealing bases in 2005?" After stealing 13 and 12, respectively, in the two seasons prior to 2005 he only stole five bases last year; and only attempted to steal seven times. I could not find any reason for this as Young was as healthy as an ox all last season. The only explanation I can come up with is that the Rangers hit more HR's in 2005 (260) than they did in any of Young's prior full-duty seasons. In 2002 they hit 230, in 2003 they hit 239, and in 2004 they hit 227. Maybe the Ranger's coaches were on to this last season and decided to not let Young take the chance of getting thrown out since the chance of him getting driven in by a HR was as high as it had ever been.
This year looks to be another year that the Rangers will hit 250+ HR's as they have young players such as Mark Teixeira, Hank Blalock, and Kevin Mench that are sure to improve. These improvements, and likely rising HR totals from these players, will make up for the loss of second baseman Alfonso Soriano. This will result in Young not attempting many stolen bases again in 2006. A projection of eight stolen base attempts, with six being successful seems right on pace with how the Rangers running game has been progressing.
Now, using those trends and others that Young is building on I was able to come up with a projection that ended up very similar to his 2005 season. There is a slight drop off due the the small increase in strikeouts I project, but nothing to affect his status as the best hitting SS in baseball:
742 PA, 666 AB, .327/.379/.515, .894 OPS, 218 Hits, 38 Doubles, 6 Triples, 25 HR, 6/2 SB/CS (93/61 K/BB)
After all that we are left with one fact: Michael Young is one of the best hitters in the game. He led the American League in batting average last season, and if it weren't for Ichiro Suzuki, I'd predict him to do it again in 2006.
Thank you for reading. If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.
