Serious Baseball: Jimmy Rollins
by Frank Bundy III
April 9, 2006
Now that Philadelphia Phillies' Jimmy Rollins' hitting streak is over I'd like to take the time to
really break him down as a baseball player. Is he really that
good? Is he really the best lead off hitter for the Phillies? These
are questions I am going to attempt to answer because now that the love fest is
over, the timing couldn't be better.
The first thing we must do in order to start this analysis is to look at
Rollins career and season by season statistics:
| Year |
Age |
AB |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
CS |
SB% |
| 2000 |
21 |
53 |
0.321 |
0.345 |
0.377 |
0.722 |
0 |
5 |
3 |
0 |
1.00% |
| 2001 |
22 |
656 |
0.274 |
0.323 |
0.419 |
0.742 |
14 |
54 |
46 |
8 |
85% |
| 2002 |
23 |
637 |
0.245 |
0.306 |
0.38 |
0.686 |
11 |
60 |
31 |
13 |
70% |
| 2003 |
24 |
628 |
0.263 |
0.320 |
0.387 |
0.707 |
8 |
62 |
20 |
12 |
62% |
| 2004 |
25 |
657 |
0.289 |
0.348 |
0.455 |
0.803 |
14 |
73 |
30 |
9 |
77% |
| 2005 |
26 |
677 |
0.290 |
0.338 |
0.431 |
0.769 |
12 |
54 |
41 |
6 |
87% |
|
|
3308 |
0.273 |
0.328 |
0.414 |
0.742 |
59 |
308 |
171 |
48 |
78% |
Throughout the entire Major Leagues last season lead-off hitters had an OBP
of .340. This is the main statistic that lead-off hitters are measured
by, and thereby makes Jimmy Rollins a below average career lead-off
hitter. He is getting better though, and showed signs of being an above
average lead-off guy in 2004 when he posted a .348 OBP. Last year though,
he dropped back down to the league average level. Let's take a look at Rollins
K/AB, and BB/PA to see why this happened, and how he may progress into the
future:
| Year |
AB |
SO |
K% |
PA |
BB |
BB% |
| 2000 |
53 |
7 |
0.1321 |
55 |
2 |
0.0364 |
| 2001 |
656 |
108 |
0.1646 |
711 |
48 |
0.0675 |
| 2002 |
637 |
103 |
0.1617 |
699 |
54 |
0.0773 |
| 2003 |
628 |
113 |
0.1799 |
684 |
54 |
0.0789 |
| 2004 |
657 |
73 |
0.1111 |
719 |
57 |
0.0793 |
| 2005 |
677 |
71 |
0.1049 |
730 |
47 |
0.0644 |
| |
3308 |
475 |
0.1436 |
3598 |
262 |
0.0728 |
It is no surprise that Rollins had his best season (according to OPS) when he
walked the most in 2004. Last season, Rollins for some reason decided to forget
about walking altogether. After two seasons of respectable, yet below
average figures in this category Rollins plummeted last season, and drew the
least amount of walks total, and percentage-wise of his career (excluding
2000). Even though he is striking out less, this tells me that even though Rollins wasn't an
ideal lead off hitter in the first place, he is actually getting worse.
Don't get me wrong here. I'm not saying that drawing walks is what
baseball is not about, not at all. I even think it is OK to be aggressive
at the plate if you are well above-average at accumulating base hits, which Rollins
was last season (.290 AVG). But that .0644 BB/PA is a full 2% lower than the NL average
last season (.0845). Quite simply, Jimmy Rollins hasn't always been a good
lead off hitter for the Phillies in the past, and most likely won't
be in the near future. There is no question in my mind that he has cost this
team runs because of his inability to reach base from the number one spot.
To prove this, let's take a look at the Philadelphia Phillies Runs/Game in
each of Rollins full-duty seasons, with his OBP's in each season included:
| 2001 |
4.60 |
0.323 |
| 2002 |
4.41 |
0.306 |
| 2003 |
4.88 |
0.320 |
| 2004 |
5.19 |
0.348 |
| 2005 |
4.98 |
0.338 |
Notice that when Rollins put up his highest OBP in 2004, the Phillies scored the most
runs and when he put up his lowest OBP in 2002, the Phillies scored the
least runs per game. This is not a coincidence, and shows how important a
lead-off hitter is to his team.
Unfortunately for the Phillies, they have no other legitimate lead-off
threats on their team and are forced to use Rollins in this spot (too bad they
traded away Placido Polonco!). Rollins would actually be an ideal number six or seven
hitter because of his low OBP. Now I know
there will be many fans who say that Rollins speed makes him an ideal lead off
hitter but this simply isn't true. While speed is very nice from the lead
off position, it is really only helpful when that hitter gets on base at a
higher than average clip, ala Juan Pierre in 2003 (.361 OBP along with 65 SB's)
or Ichiro Suzuki every year.
Speed doesn't make a lead off hitter. If a player has trouble getting on base
in the first place, why would you want to risk him getting thrown off the base paths
with an attempted steal? You wouldn't.
All this does not change the fact that Rollins is a very good baseball player
though He, without question would have great value to any team. Last season's NL average
shortstop batted .265/.313/.379 (.692 OPS), which when compared to Rollins
career line shows his offensive
value. When you combine this with Rollins defensive ability he becomes an
extremely valuable asset. According to Dave Pinto's PMR,
Rollins ranked tenth in all of baseball in the difference between his actual DER
and predicted DER. Among shortstops who were on the field for 3000+ plays,
Rollins ranked third.
Even though Rollins isn't the best option to lead off games, he is a very
good player and did deserve the attention he received during the hitting
streak. If the Phillies ever acquire somebody who could get on base at a
.350 clip or higher and move Rollins lower in the order, their offense would
become much more potent. Which is a scary thought considering how good it is
now.
Congratulations, Jimmy; we enjoyed every day of it.
Thank you for reading. If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not
hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.
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