I'm an idiot. I fell for the oldest trick in the book. Honestly, I wouldn't find it surprising if you read my articles and went against all my projections to pick your fantasy teams.
I mean, seriously, how many writers out there predicted a 43 HR season from Adrian Beltre in his first season as a Seattle Mariner in 2005? Also, to go along with that gaudy HR prediction, I also projected a .315/.368/.586 batting line to go along with 112 RBI! I-D-I-O-T!
At the time of the projection Beltre was coming off a .334/.388/.629 season with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2004 when he hit 48 HR's and drove in 121 Runs. On top of this, he was only 25 years old at the time. I fell for the trick he played on all of us that season and believed he had finally matured as a hitter. I believed he was finally going to live up to the potential that surrounded him when the Los Angeles Dodgers signed him as a 15 year old in 1994.
After all, his "prime" years were still ahead of him, and the Mariners were definitely spending their money wisely by granting Beltre a five-year, $64 million contract to be their third baseman.
Boy, oh boy, was I wrong. In his first season as a Mariner Beltre batted .255/.303/.413 with 19 HR and 87 RBI. What the heck happened? He wasn't injured, so why did this sudden drop-off occur?
This is when hindsight being 20/20 will make me look more like an idiot than ever before. Have a look at all of Beltre's previous season OPS' with 2004 excluded:
1998 | 0.647 |
1999 | 0.780 |
2000 | 0.835 |
2001 | 0.721 |
2002 | 0.729 |
2003 | 0.714 |
2005 | 0.716 |
All off those numbers seem like they fit right in with the others, don't they? It actually seems that the .716 OPS posted by Beltre in 2005 should have been easy to predict. But, while it is easy exclude his 2004 OPS in this chart, it isn't easy to just disregard it in real life. The 1.017 OPS he posted in 2004 had to be accounted for. I thought I had done this properly by not projecting a repeat of that number, but a drop-off to a still superstar-like .954 OPS in 2005. Again, I was wrong.
I like to dig a little deeper though, and look at a player's peripheral numbers to more closely see how he actually performed. Specifically, I like to take a look at how often a player struck out, walked, and hit for power in any unique season to see exactly what the player did to improve or worsen.
Let's take a look at Beltre's season-by-season K/AB, BB/PA, ISOP (Isolated Power), and AB/HR, so we can see more specifically what happened in 2004:
| Year | AB/K | PA/BB | AB/HR | ISOP |
| 1998 | 5.27 | 15.14 | 27.86 | 0.154 |
| 1999 | 5.12 | 10.00 | 35.87 | 0.153 |
| 2000 | 6.38 | 10.21 | 25.50 | 0.185 |
| 2001 | 5.79 | 18.32 | 36.54 | 0.146 |
| 2002 | 6.11 | 17.14 | 27.95 | 0.169 |
| 2003 | 5.43 | 16.41 | 24.30 | 0.184 |
| 2004 | 6.87 | 12.40 | 12.46 | 0.295 |
| 2005 | 5.58 | 17.11 | 31.74 | 0.158 |
To clear things up even more, Beltre's career numbers in these categories entering 2004 were as follows (2004 numbers in parentheses):
5.69 AB/K (6.87), 13.51 PA/BB (12.40), 28.93 AB/HR (12.46), .166 ISOP (.295)
Looking at those numbers make 2004 look like even more of an anomaly than it first appeared, doesn't it? I don't care how many weights a player lifted, or how hard he worked in the off season nobody can improve their AB/HR rate as much as Beltre did in 2004, and have it be considered their new career standard. This was the fluke of all flukes, and the expectations from Beltre in this category should have stayed the same as they were before 2004.
This wasn't the only big-time fluke though. When a player had never had an ISOP over .185 in any season of his career, and suddenly posts a .295 in that category, that screams out "fluke" as well. These two power categories clearly were "one-time only" events in 2004, and major declines should have been projected for 2005. A projection back to Beltre's career numbers prior to 2004, with maybe a slight increase because he was so young seem very appropriate.
Beltre's AB/K rate, while better than his career rate up to that point wasn't nearly as fluky as his power numbers. While striking out only once every 6.87 AB's in 2004 was a career best, it wasn't completely "out of left field." His PA/BB in 2004 was much better than the rates he posted in 2001, 2002 and 2003, but wasn't even his best output in this category as the rates he posted in 1999 and 2000 were both better by a lot.
Fast forwarding now to the present day we see that Beltre's 2005 season was pretty much right in line with his career numbers entering 2004.
Again, why did this happen? The answer to this question is one that I refused to believe existed as little as a year ago.
Beltre performed so well in 2004 because it was his "walk" year. He was going to be a free agent after the 2004 season, and he was sure not to get much money from anybody if he performed in 2004 as he had done in every season up to that point in his career. While Beltre's season in 2004 is an absolutely extreme example of players over-performing in their "walk" years, it holds as proof that they do exist.
Whether it was a different off-season workout plan, increased focus, or whatever; it worked for Adrian. Beltre proceeded to use his 2004 season to cash in and set him and his family up for life.
I, naive as I am, used to believe that a professional athlete, such as Beltre, would always perform at the highest level he possibly could every season. After all, these guys are professionals and they get paid to perform the best they can all the time. Well, it turns out I was wrong and Adrian Beltre's descent to normality last season doesn't serve as the only proof that this phenomenon exists.
In 2004 Carlos Beltran posted a .915 OPS, and hit a HR every 15.76 AB's for the Kansas City Royals and Houston Astros in his "walk" year. His career OPS and AB/HR rate coming into that season was .829, and 26.56 respectively. These "inflated" numbers in his "walk" year led to a seven-year, $119 million contract from the New York Mets the following off-season.
It doesn't stop there though. Look back at Manny Ramirez in his "walk" year of 2000 with the Cleveland Indians. His OPS that season was 1.154 and he hit a HR once every 11.55 AB's. His career OPS and HR/AB rate coming into that season was .975 and 15.31 respectively. Like Beltran and Beltre above, Ramirez used those inflated numbers in his "walk" year to sign an eight-year; $160 million contract the following off-season with the Boston Red Sox. By the way, that 1.154 OPS is still Ramirez' career-high OPS to this day.
It's true; money does drive even the most talented of people. So from now on, when I see a hitter have a very obvious career season in his "walk" year, I am going to essentially disregard it from all analysis.
Hopefully my idiocy will tone down a level now that I made a horrible mistake, and learned from it.
For now though, I am still not only a client of Idiots INC., I am the President and founder as well.
Thank you for reading. If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.
