Serious Baseball: Second Basemen on the Rise?

by Matt Souders
May 21, 2006


For the last several years, when fantasy baseball GMs have prepared their draft cards for a new season, they've had to place a premium on a few positions.  You've all seen how it works in your drafts.  In the first few rounds, there's usually a run on the few top catchers, the young and proven starting pitchers, the power hitting shortstops, the top stolen base threats, and the high-impact closers.  In years gone by (including this one), second base has been excluded from those runs with the exception of one or two "big names" who qualify at the position (Jeff Kent, Marcus Giles and Alfonso Soriano this year).  The only reason there hasn't been a major run on second base is that there simply haven't been players who man the position who are worth taking any earlier than the middle rounds.  If you're fortunate enough to get one of top two guys, bully for you!  If not, owners have been content to accept mediocre production from second base and concentrate on other things.

This season, the complexion of baseball is changing and one look at the major league offensive leader board among second basemen makes that clear.  Here are the top fifteen hitters whose primary position is second base and who have at least eighty plate appearances through May 18:

Rank Age Name PA OPS
1 29 Chase Utley 170 0.913
2 30 Luis Castillo 152 0.843
3 26 Dan Uggla 173 0.829
4 31 Jose Vidro 166 0.827
5 28 Brian Roberts 108 0.823
6 29 Aaron Miles 113 0.807
7 22 Jose Lopez 184 0.806
8 40 Craig Biggio 167 0.803
9 28 Ty Wigginton 157 0.790
10 36 Mark Grudzielanek 145 0.773
11 38 Jeff Kent 159 0.767
12 23 Rickie Weeks 154 0.762
13 31 Tadahito Iguchi 164 0.758
14 23 Robinson Cano 150 0.757
15 29 Mark Ellis 143 0.728

In bold are players who are under thirty (young and with room to improve).  The class of established stars most fantasy drafters were highly familiar with coming into this season who are still hitting productively consists of Alfonso Soriano (not pictured here since he is no longer a second baseman after 2006), Jeff Kent, Craig Biggio (but who knows how long this can continue at his age), Jose Vidro (who gets hurt more often than the soldiers in Iraq), and Luis Castillo (still going strong and particularly aided by the artificial turf of the Metrodome, which favors groundball hitters).  Granted, many of you were probably well aware of Rickie Weeks, who spent most of the last two seasons atop many prospect charts.  I know Weeks was drafted pretty high on my league this year.  It's hard not to be familiar with Robinson Cano as well given where he plays, and of course Chase Utley got some MVP votes last year and established himself as a stud when the Phillies finally traded Placido Polanco to make room (a head scratcher considering how well he was hitting and how poorly David Bell has played the last few years).  Beyond that, however, is a whole class of contributors who are young, improving, and preparing to change the way we view the second base position.

Jose Lopez is a fast-rising star who has (as many 20 year olds do) tended in the past to try to pull everything in site, resulting in a lot of strikeouts and flyballs, but whose K rate this year has dropped dramatically and who now has a 1.36 GB/FB.  If Brian Roberts can stay off the DL, he still has the potential to become one of the top run-scorers in the American League.  Oakland's Mark Ellis didn't get off to a great start in 2006, but last season, he was the spark that ignited a second-half surge and nearly propelled the As back to the post-season after starting the year below .500 before the all-star break.  The hits will start falling eventually, and you'll see his name climb the charts in a hurry.

There are others who didn't make this list because they've missed playing time due to injuries or because they haven't come out of the gate quite as well this season who bear watching.  The Rangers have a good one in the making in Ian Kinsler, who got off to a blazing start but dislocated his finger and has yet to return.  The Devil Rays are still smarting from the loss of power hitting second baseman Jorge Cantu, who broke his foot on April 24th and hasn't been able to get back into the game.  Atlanta's Marcus Giles is in the midst of an inexplicable slump that cannot continue much longer.  He's still very young and has tremendous upside, so fantasy owners with Gules on their rosters shouldn't panic yet.  Hang onto him and enjoy the show when he gets hot.  San Diego has also suffered from a poor start by prospective middle infield anchor Jesse Barfield.  He might not hit much in his first full season, but keep a close eye on him next season, because he might be a sleeper pick worth remembering when the run on these young and rising second basemen takes all of the top names off of your draft board!  Once Craig Biggio hangs up his cleats and gets out of the way, the Astros' Chris Burke is another player to watch.  As a 4th outfielder, and utility infielder, he's not terribly useful this year (especially given his recent shoulder dislocation...ouch!), but he's got the ability to be productive at second in the future.

The mark of a good fantasy GM is his ability to see and react to changes in the distribution of talent before everyone else does and take advantages in the weaknesses of his opponents' draft strategies with high-value picks in the middle rounds.  The glut of young, skilled offensive second basemen making its way into the minds of fantasy owners around the country might be cause to pick another "skill position" to emphasize on draft day in 2007.

Food for thought...

Thanks for reading!

 

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