"The Tigers already have one power righty in their big league rotation in Jeremy Bonderman, who is just four months older than (Justin) Verlander. He should join Bonderman full-time in the rotation in 2006, if not out of spring training then shortly thereafter. If Verlander learns the nuances of pitching to go with his electric stuff, he could supplant Bonderman as Detroit's Number One starter."
This is what Baseball America had to say about Detroit Tiger then-number one prospect Justin Verlander before the start of the season in their "Prospect Handbook 2006." So far it looks like they were right on.
In the rotation since day one, Verlander has surpassed Bonderman as the Tigers Ace this season with his 6-3 record and 2.70 ERA in 60 IP. Can the 23 year old, with no apparent weaknesses in his arsenal, keep this pace up for the remainder of the season though?
To try and answer this question we have to take a closer look at exactly what Verlander is doing in 2006. To do this, let's have a look at some batted-ball data provided by FanGraphs.com:
| Season | LD% | GB% | FB% | IFFB% | HR/FB | BABIP |
| 2006 | 19.8% | 42.2% | 38.0% | 16.9% | 8.5% | 0.250 |
| League Averages | 19.0% | 43.0% | 38.0% | 10.0% | 12.0% | 0.299 |
Looking at this chart we can see that as far as the amount of line-drives, ground balls and fly balls Verlander is inducing, he's right around league average and these numbers provide us with no answers. The last three columns do provide us answers though, and show where Verlander is exceeding league averages. Of the fly balls he is giving up, very little are leaving the park (HR/FB); and even better, 16.9% of those fly balls aren't even leaving the infield (IFFB%)! These tendencies, combined with his extra-low BABIP play a big part in keeping Verlander's ERA so low.
To get more answers, let's take a look at Verlander's strikeout/base-on-balls statistics, and at how well he is getting out of jams (represented by LOB%):
| Season | K/9 | BB/9 | LOB% |
| 2006 | 5.1 | 2.25 | 80.9% |
| League Averages | 6.2 | 3.3 | 70% |
Here we see two other elements that are contributing to Verlander's hot start: not walking many batters, and getting out of jams. The most interesting statistic presented, though, is his strikeout rate. In Verlander's college career his strikeout rate never dipped below 10.75 per nine innings, and during his brief time in the minor leagues it was 10.31. Clearly, Verlander's current rate (5.1) will rise as he gets acclimated to the big leagues (remember he is still a rookie) which will only make him better.
This is what makes the rookie's start so scary. While his IFFB%, HR/FB, BABIP and LOB% are all sure to worsen as the season wears on, his rising strikeout rate will somewhat cancel these out. Meaning, the success he is currently having doesn't have to stop anytime soon. While he most likely won't end the season with a 2.70 ERA, somewhere in the three's isn't just a possibility, it's a probability.
Now let's take a look at the man that Verlander will supplant as the Detroit Tigers ace; the aforementioned Jeremy Bonderman.
Bonderman isn't off to as great a start as Verlander in 2006 (5-3, 4.57 ERA in 63 IP) but has still been a big part of the Detroit Tigers overall success. Let's break down Bonderman's start just as we did Verlander's, but this time we can compare the veteran's numbers to his career statistics instead of league averages:
| LD% | GB% | FB% | IFFB% | HR/FB | BABIP | |
| 2003 | 25.0% | 43.0% | 32.0% | 10.3% | 13.1% | 0.328 |
| 2004 | 18.0% | 47.9% | 34.1% | 8.9% | 13.3% | 0.291 |
| 2005 | 19.3% | 47.5% | 33.2% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 0.314 |
| 2006 | 21.5% | 49.2% | 29.3% | 17.0% | 9.4% | 0.298 |
| Total | 20.8% | 46.4% | 32.7% | 10.6% | 12.1% | 0.310 |
Looking at his batted-ball data we can see some of the things that have been going wrong for Bonderman so far. He's giving up more line drives than normal, and the BABIP against him is higher than he's used to. But, we also see some very good things as well. He's inducing more ground balls, many of the fly balls he's allowing are staying in the infield (IFFB%), and not many of them are flying out of the park compared to his career numbers (HR/FB). All in all, looking at this batted ball data doesn't tell us why Bonderman is having such a rough start. Let's take a look at his strikeout/base-on-ball numbers, along with his LOB% to get a closer look, and hopefully some answers:
| Season | K/9 | BB/9 | LOB% |
| 2003 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 61.5% |
| 2004 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 69.0% |
| 2005 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 69.0% |
| 2006 | 7.6 | 2.4 | 64.3% |
| Total | 7.1 | 3.1 | 70%* |
*League Average LOB% is presented
Here we see that Bonderman is actually pitching much better than his "surface" numbers indicate. While his strikeout rate is slightly lower than his career rate, it is well above average; and his walk rate is as low as it has ever been. The problem seems to be his LOB%. While his counterpart, Verlander, is experiencing great luck in this department, Bonderman is not. Lucky for him is that for the same reason Verlander's LOB% will drop, his is sure to rise as this statistic is one that tends to drift toward the league average.
So while Bonderman doesn't have the same great "surface" numbers as Verlander, it actually seems that he is pitching better; and will improve as the season progresses. While there are some statistics above that are sure to worsen as the season rolls on (IFFB%, HR/FB) his sure-to-rise K-rate and dropping BABIP will cancel these out and we will be sure to see an improved Jeremy Bonderman.
An ERA between 3.75-4.15 is what seems to be in store for Bonderman, and when you combine that with the dominance of Verlander at the top of the rotation there is legitimate reason to believe the Detroit Tigers are for real.
Lastly, it is very important to note that both of these pitchers, and all Tiger pitchers for that matter, have the benefit of pitching in front of the best defense in the American League. Whether you choose to use Defensive Efficiency Rating (DER), or the +/- system over at The Hardball Times as your defensive metric of choice, the Tigers team defense comes out on top every time.
With their great defense, and the overall "filthiness" that Verlander and Bonderman bring to the top of the rotation, the Tigers look to be for real and shouldn't be written off by anybody.
Oh yeah, did I forget to mention that these two flame-throwers are only 23 years old?
Thank you for reading. If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.
