We're a little over one-third of the way through baseball's regular season and I think it would be a great time to check on how I'm doing on my off-season projections. I will do this at the two-thirds point of the season as well, and at the conclusion.
I will be accountable for the words I've written.
I went back in the AtHomePlate.com archives and uncovered every article I wrote this past off season that was completely dedicated to projecting one player or team. If you feel like re-reading the article, or reading it for the first time, please click the link within each player or team name.
Next to each link you'll see how far off I was off on my projection of an offensive player's OPS (in parentheses), or a pitcher's ERA. Next to a team link you'll see how many percentage points I was off from their current win percentage. Lastly, I will simply list the projected statistics along with the actual statistics and a comment about how right or wrong I've been, and will be.
Let's get this started:
Chase Utley (+.023 Points of OPS)
Projected: 500+ AB, .276/.354/.536 (.890 OPS), 25 HR
Actual: 268 AB, .295/.363/.504 (.867 OPS), 12 HR
So far it looks like I underestimated Utley's ability to get on-base, but overestimated his power. Overall, this projection doesn't look so bad one-third of the way through the season.
David Wright (-.122 Points of OPS)
Projected: 500+ AB, .291/.371/.496 (.867 OPS), 23 HR’s
Actual: 257, .336/.405/.584 (.989 OPS), 14 HR
At this point it looks like I completely underestimated the Mets third baseman. He is doing much better than all of my projections and is on pace to hit more HR's than I stated.
Felix Hernandez (-1.42 Point of ERA)
Projected: 175+ IP, 3.60 ERA, 8.0 H/9—0.7 HR/9—4.5 BB/9—7.5 K/9
Actual: 84.3 IP, 5.02 ERA, 9.5 H/9--1.5 HR/9--3.0 BB/9--8.8 K/9
As you can see I had Felix's ERA much lower, but I had his K/BB numbers much worse. In an odd turn of events Hernandez has actually posted great K/BB numbers, but has been too "hittable." This has led to a highly-inflated ERA that should drop as the season wears on.
Jim Thome (-.082 Points of OPS)
Projected: 500+ AB, .267/.407/.542 (.949 OPS), 37 HR
Actual: 221 AB, .281/.415/.615 (1.031), 22 HR
Jim Thome is slugging his way to an MVP-type season so far. Even though the projected numbers I had for him were great, he is performing even better. If Thome stays healthy my projection for him is actually one of the ones I am most confident in (mostly because I had so much past data to project off of).
Johnny Damon (-.025 Points of OPS)
Projected: 500+ AB, .302/.357/.432 (.789 OPS), 12 HR
Actual: 257 AB, .288/.359/.455 (.814 OPS), 9 HR
Wow! I projected only 12 HR's for Damon the entire season! He is sure making me look like one of his disciples: an IDIOT. He seems to be showing more patience to go along with the power as well. It'll be interesting to see how things shape out.
Frank Thomas (+.043 Points of OPS)
Projected: 500+ AB, .268/.378/.543 (.921 OPS), 28 HR
Actual: 184 AB, .239/.356/.522 (.878 OPS), 16 HR
The Big Hurt is under performing according to my projection right now, except for in the HR department. If he does get healthy I remain fairly confident that his batting average and OBP will rise as the season wears on.
Mike Piazza (+.015 Points of OPS)
Projected: 500+ AB, .271/.350/.441 (.791 OPS), 20 HR
Actual: 166 AB, .259/.324/.452 (.776 OPS), 8 HR
I actually come out looking pretty good here. I'm not that far off in OPS, and Piazza's HR pace is fairly close to what I projected. The fact though is that he is under performing right now (just barely), and as the season wears on it's hard for me to believe that a career-long catcher will improve.
Sammy Sosa (N/A)
Projected: 500 AB's, .241/.318/.411, 16 HR
Actual: Retired
Every team in baseball made the right decision by not signing Sammy Sosa this season.
Coco Crisp (N/A)
Projected: 500+ AB, .294/.347/.482 (.829 OPS), 19 HR, 19 SB, 6 CS
Actual: 102 AB, .275/.321/.392 (.713 OPS), 2 HR, 4 SB, 2 CS
I have an excuse here. Crisp was hurt for six weeks, and nothing can be drawn from the small amount of AB's he's accumulated in 2006.
Jose Reyes (-.043 Points of OPS)
Projected: 500+ AB, .290/.328/.404 (.732 OPS), 44 SB
Actual: 285 AB, .267/.337/.479 (.775 OPS), 29 SB
Very, very surprisingly Reyes' batting average is lower than his projection, yet his OBP is higher. This means the youngster is showing much improved patience at the plate. Obviously, this is something I didn't project and if it continues throughout the season it will be Reyes' best yet. He's also on pace do steal more bases than projected.
Kevin Millwood (-0.69 ERA)
Projected: 195 IP, 3.78 ERA, 9.6 H/9–1.3 HR/9–2.5 BB/9–6.9 K/9
Actual: 92.7 IP, 4.47 ERA, 10.4 H/9--0.8 HR/9--1.7 BB/9--6.4 K/9
Like Felix Hernandez above Millwood is performing great in terms of strikeouts and walks, but has been too "hittable." This has led to his ERA being inflated and much higher than his projection. He also isn't giving up nearly as many HR's as projected, but he's only had five starts at Ameriquest Field, so look for that number to rise. Overall, look for that H/9 number to drop, and for that ERA to drift more towards my projection.
Derrek Lee (N/A)
Projected: 580 AB, .288/.365/.531 (.896 OPS) 32 HR, 13 SB
Actual: 44 AB, .318/.448/.614 (1.062 OPS), 3 HR, 5 SB
Whew! Good thing I have an excuse here. Like Coco Crisp above, Lee's abbreviated season due to injury is nothing to analyze..
Michael Young (+.100 Points of OPS)
Projected: 666 AB, .327/.379/.515 (.894 OPS), 25 HR, 6/2 SB/CS
Actual: 294 AB, .313/.358/.435 (.794 OPS), 4 HR, 3/2 SB/CS
It looks like Michael Young is taking a while to get going in 2006. With the weather warming up in the coming months in Texas you can put money on Michael Young improving as the season wears on.
St. Louis Cardinals (-.032 Points of Winning Percentage)
Projected Record: 93-69, .574 Winning Percentage
Actual Record: 40-26, .606 Winning Percentage
At the current moment the Cardinals are playing better than my projection. This is due to the lethal combination of great offense, and great defense/pitching. The Cards currently rank fourth in the NL runs scored (339), and are tied for second in the NL for least amount of runs allowed (285). If this continues, it seems I will have underestimated the Cardinals.
Milwaukee Brewers (-.022 Points of Winning Percentage)
Projected Record: 75-87, .463 Winning Percentage
Actual Record: 33-35, .485 Winning Percentage
Even though they aren't playing well, the Brewers still have out-played my projection. I can honestly say though, that I'm surprised they are performing as well as they have. They currently rank ninth in the NL in runs scored (325), and dead last in the NL in runs allowed (374), allowing a full 20 runs more than the next worst team (Atlanta Braves). It seems they are lucky to be even two games under .500. They won't continue to stay near .500, though, if they keep allowing runs at this pace; as their Pythagorean record of 30-38 suggests.
So how am I doing? Well, the answer to that question is all up to the person that asks it. Keep in mind though, there is a lot of baseball left. Each of the players and teams highlighted above are sure to endure swings in their performance as the season wears on, so none of this is final.
I look forward to doing this article at the two-thirds point, and I hope you're there to read it.
Thank you for reading. If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.
