How could they possibly fail? The Angels entered this season defending the AL title after staring down a surging young Oakland team that made the AL West race quite interesting at the end of 2005 - and they began play this year with almost entirely the same roster as last year. And yet this year, they're playing sloppy baseball and floundering in the cellar where the once-hapless Mariners once rested (that team is now surging back into contention and has already made it clear by acquiring Eduardo Perez that they're buyers in the trade market). This article will explore what has gone wrong with the Angels by going through the opening day roster and attempting to pick out the sources of this woeful first-half performance (a well-earned 36-44 record before Saturday's games).
The Offense:
| Player | Pos | x(RC/PA) | RC | PA | Impact |
| Chone Figgins | 3B/2B | 0.131 | 39 | 348 | -6.7 |
| Orlando Cabrera | SS | 0.118 | 47 | 339 | 7.0 |
| Garret Anderson | LF/DH | 0.131 | 31 | 291 | -7.2 |
| Vlad Guerrero | RF | 0.225 | 47 | 329 | -27.2 |
| Darin Erstad | CF | 0.110 | 7 | 99 | -3.9 |
| Casey Kotchman | 1B | 0.111 | 2 | 88 | -7.7 |
| Juan Rivera | DH/LF | 0.129 | 20 | 174 | -2.4 |
| Jose Molina | C | 0.077 | 8 | 127 | -1.8 |
| Mike Napoli | C | 0.110 | 28 | 144 | 12.2 |
| Adam Kennedy | 2B | 0.125 | 27 | 272 | -7.0 |
| Robb Quinlan | 1B/3B | 0.128 | 11 | 110 | -3.1 |
| Maicer Izturis | UT | 0.094 | 8 | 70 | 1.4 |
| Kendry Morales | 1B/2B | 0.100 | 13 | 140 | -1.0 |
| Tim Salmon | DH | 0.133 | 25 | 168 | 2.7 |
| Dallas McPherson | 3B | 0.118 | 14 | 115 | 0.4 |
| Edgardo Alfonzo | UT | 0.080 | -2 | 52 | -6.2 |
A few words about the meaning of this table before I discuss whether some of the over-performers and under-performers are likely to continue as they have this year and which players will return to their usual form.
The far left column (after name and position) represents the player's runs created per plate appearance in the last three seasons unless he hasn't played enough to make a legitimate estimate, in which case I made an estimate by looking at that player's minor league track record.
The far right column represents the difference between each player's established performance level and this year's results. We'll take a look at the five biggest underperformers and the players who've received less playing time than they were expected to get due to injuries and try to make some sense of how a team that was middle of the pack on offense last year is suddenly among the worst in the AL.
Culprit #7) Juan Rivera: Here's a player that was expected to get 400 or 500 PA covering some DH at bats, playing a little left field and being used against tough lefties. Instead, he's spent about half the first 80 games of the season on the DL with leg problems and hasn't quite lived up to his previous two full seasons of offensive performance when he has played. A betting man doesn't bet against Rivera to rebound a bit once he starts getting back to 100% health and gets regular playing time, but this is a minor factor given the dramatic comeback of Tim Salmon.
Culprit #6) Darin Erstad: Not that he was a particularly special hitter before this season started, but in his absence the Angels haven't had much luck getting offensive production from the replacement outfielders on the roster. His ankle problems and generally brittle body are now a part of Angels' pre-season strategy (they know he's going to spend time on the DL so they usually prepare for it), but short of moving Figgins into CF (where he's a below average fielder) and therefore being forced to tolerate even worse hitting from either Dallas McPherson or Maicer Izturis, the Angels don't have a guy who can play much CF right now, at least not with Rivera still slightly out of top shape.
Culprit #5) Chone Figgins: This looks more like a case of bad luck than any kind of permanent problem for Figgins. His offensive game has always been centered around his ability to get in play base hits (mostly singles) and then steal bases, but this year his BABIP is down from his typical .320 or .330 to a more pedestrian .297. A guy with his speed and tendency to hit it on the ground will probably recover and hit for a better average in the second half, but the damage to the Angels' playoff chances has already been done. Without a table setter, Vlad Guerrero isn't getting any pitches to hit.
Culprit #4) Casey Kotchman: The Angels were going to have the luxury of moving Erstad back to CF where his glove would be of more use because Kotchman was supposed to have been the long term answer at first base. A lot of smart Angels' fans honestly believed he would hit .300+ this year and be a nice addition. Instead he struggled heroically and is now back in AAA attempting to recover. I can't explain the anomalously bad year he's had so far. His career minor league eye ratio (BB/K) is well over one which usually translates to immediate success in the big leagues but something went wrong this time. If he gets another shot this year (and I'm sure he will), I'd expect a much better showing.
Culprit #3) Adam Kennedy: I must confess I've never been a big fan of Kennedy. I don't generally pay much attention to slap hitters, especially not ones with weak eye ratios like Kennedy's (2 Ks for every walk isn't what you want in a singles hitter). Kennedy has never been particularly consistent over the course of his career partially because of injuries and partially because he game-plan relies so heavily on hitting lucky singles. His spot in the batting order hasn't exactly been conducive to getting a lot of great pitches to hit (he used to bat second or 7th, now he's batting 9th most nights), so he might or might not make much of a recovery. I tend to believe he's not going to be hitting .300 any time soon.
Culprit #2) Garret Anderson: This is a very important example of what happens to hitters who come to rely so heavily on guessing correctly and generating bat speed to buy reaction time. Since Anderson has never had good plate discipline (BB/K has always been .2 to .33) any loss of bat speed spells the end of his productive career, and you're seeing that in painful slow motion now. His degenerative condition (arthritis) and the natural aging process has hindered his bat speed and he's become a horrible hitter and a below average fielder. This isn't going to improve any time soon. Garret Anderson is done.
Culprit #1) Vlad Guerrero: I'm not going to sit here and argue that Vlad is likely to continue hitting for a meager .812 OPS after last season's .959 OPS (and his career average of .968), but I urge caution when expecting Vlad to go on some kind of historic streak that allows him to get the Angels back on track single-handedly. He's also a free-swinging player, and free swingers have a tendency to age faster than guys who take more pitches and whose game is less centered on hitting pitcher's pitches. Normally, Vlad walks a few more times than he strikes out, at least in recent years, but this year, he's managed to strike out twice as often as normal, creating a very poor BB/K (16/40). That's a red flag and a very bad sign for Guerrero and the Angels if it continues.
The Defense
| Player | Role | xERA | ER | Outs | ERA | Impact |
| Bartolo Colon | SP1 | 3.89 | 22 | 103 | 5.77 | -7.2 |
| John Lackey | SP2 | 3.70 | 39 | 318 | 3.31 | 4.6 |
| Kelvim Escobar | SP3 | 3.92 | 43 | 281 | 4.13 | -2.2 |
| Jeff Weaver | SP4 | 4.88 | 62 | 266 | 6.29 | -13.9 |
| Ervin Santana | SP5 | 4.57 | 43 | 296 | 3.92 | 7.1 |
| Jered Weaver | SP6 | 2.90 | 4 | 79 | 1.37 | 4.5 |
| Kevin Gregg | SW | 4.67 | 23 | 130 | 4.78 | -0.5 |
| Hector Carrasco | LR | 4.04 | 23 | 155 | 4.01 | 0.2 |
| Esteban Yan | MR | 5.15 | 17 | 67 | 6.85 | -4.2 |
| J.C. Romero | MR | 4.21 | 22 | 84 | 7.07 | -8.9 |
| Brendon Donnelly | SU | 3.08 | 10 | 97 | 2.78 | 1.1 |
| Scott Shields | SU | 3.35 | 11 | 127 | 2.34 | 4.8 |
| Francisco Rodriguez | CL | 2.76 | 12 | 102 | 3.18 | -1.6 |
Culprit #4) Middle Relief: The tandem of Esteban Yan and J.C. Romero have thus far combined for an abysmal season and the angels' attempts to replace Yan since they designated him for assignment have been entirely unsuccessful. The Angels have managed 13 bullpen losses in the first half, and that is not a good mark for the middle relievers. With half the game in the books, a competent bullpen will hold on for the win about 70% of the time. With Yan gone, Hector Carrasco is being used more as a middle man than a long man and I'd expect Romero to improve as the year wears on, so while the Angels will not have a drop-dead bullpen in the middle innings this year, you can probably look for some improvement.
Culprit #3) Angels Defense: All last season the Angels allowed 45 unearned runs (tops in the AL). This season they've already allowed 58 unearned runs and we're only halfway home. Just about everyone is having a bad year on defense, even the usually reliable up-the-middle duo of Adam Kennedy and Orlando Cabrera. I don't think the Angels are really this bad defensively, but their unearned run rate will probably continue to be elevated because last year, defensive mistakes were less costly with a much stronger pitching staff than they'll be this year with a staff that relies more on good defensive execution to win.
Culprit #2) Bartolo Colon: A man in Colon's "excellent" physical condition can expect to suffer back problems and a general lack of durability and that's just what's beginning to happen to the hulking Cy Young winner. He suffered similar injury problems in 2004 and struggled just as badly as he has thus far in 2006, and this is probably going to become an increasingly difficult battle to win for the Angels and Colon. If I were them, I'd be looking for takers in the trade market.
Culprit #1) Jeff Weaver: Sabermetricians are actually divided on Weaver. A lot of his predictive indices (things like his HR/Flyball rate, his BABIP and his K/BB) suggest he's not really this bad, but I have a tendency to believe that when a pitcher is no longer major league caliber, the defense independent logic blows up because he's giving up too many line drives. Jeff Weaver is getting POUNDED and the Angels took entirely too long to give up on him and get him off the roster. Now that he's gone, and replaced with his younger and much better brother Jered, the Angels' rotation is way better off.
Conclusions:
This is not the Angels' year. The other three teams in the AL West are all flawed so they're not "done" yet, but this looks to me like a transitional season. Too many young guys trying to get their feet under them, too many holes in the line-up and the bullpen, too much in the way of inexperience causing sloppy play, and the legitimate stars on the team are showing signs of age. They have a bright future with that loaded farm system and a lot of good pieces in place to build around, but this is not their year.
Of course I said this was not the Angels' year back in March and no one listened to me...go figure.
Thanks for reading...
