Seious Baseball: Reds/Nationals Trade at a (Confused) Glance

On Thursday, July 13th, 2006 the Reds and Nationals consummated an eight player trade that confirms an important fact about the current state of baseball. There are only 29 teams. Let me introduce the world to the Cincington Rednats. Two rosters, two different home ballparks, two frustrated communities of fans and one mind boggling front office now characterize the landscape between Cincinnati and Washington DC. That's the only possible explanation for the bizarre lopsided trade between Jim Bowden's former club and his current one. I am seriously wondering if the Bowden connection is more than mere coincidence on a day when the Reds "shored up their bullpen" by trading away former hot prospect Ryan Wagner, multi-talented outfielder Austin Kearns and solid middle infielder Felipe Lopez to the Nats for relievers Gary Majewski and Bill Bray, infielders Royce Clayton and Brendon Harris, and minor league pitcher Darryl Thompson.

Let's do a quick minimally statistical run down of the important players in this trade from my perspective to try to explain why I think Cincinnati screwed up so unbelievably.

Austin Kearns: There was a time when Cincinnati wouldn't have dealt Kearns for 99.9% of the players in professional baseball. He was thought to be a legitimate five-tool prospect whose minor league record hinted at limitless possibilities for him.  Then he got hurt.  A lot.  Every Year.  Shoulder troubles, leg troubles, broken bones, you name it, he did it - until this year.  In 2006, Kearns has been healthy all year and now, as he finally begins to deliver on all of that promise and untapped potential, the Reds trade him for a pair of relievers and a bunch of garbage players.  On the year he was hitting .274/.351/.492 which a fairly typical (for Kearns) 83/35 K/BB ratio.  His BABIP of .326 suggests he might be a little lucky to be hitting in the .270s right now, but prior to all of the injuries he was always thought of as a player with a tremendously live bat, so it's possible he'll continue to keep his BABIP elevated if he's hitting a blizzard of line drives as his power numbers suggest.  He's also the Reds' most mobile outfield this year (Griffey hasn't been a good fielder since 1997), and his departure leaves an already shaky outfield defense looking truly awful.

Gary Majewski: The centerpiece of the trade from the Reds' perspective is Gary Majewski, who joins a bullpen that is in desperate need of help after blowing about half its' leads so far, comes to Cincinnati with a lifetime ERA of 3.27.  He's expected to get a legitimate opportunity to close in Cincy.  There's just one problem.  Gary Majewski isn't really all that great a reliever.  He owns a career 3.89 Defense-Neutral ERA and he's been greatly aided by the friendly confines of RFK Stadium.  From the standpoint of the "three true outcomes" he's a 5.3 K, 3.7 BB, 0.8 park-neutral HR pitcher (those are per-9 innings).  That control ratio is abysmal for a set-up man and unacceptable entirely for a closer.

Bill Bray: The other reliever the Reds acquired in this deal brings a Minor League 4.40 ERA (although that comes with a 55/14 K/BB ratio in 47 innings pitched) and a Major League park and defense neutral ERA of 4.03.  He's certainly better than other options at the Reds' disposal for middle relief, but he's been somewhat erratic on his way up from the college ranks and has never been considered a serious prospect by anyone.  I'm sure he'll prove useful to the Reds, but is that what you want to acquire in exchange for two of the starters in your everyday line-up?  It makes even less sense when you look at the next guy on my list.

Ryan Wagner: The Reds have absolutely zero ability to scout and judge the abilities of pitchers. They're among the worst organizations in the last thirty years in this regard as evident by their acquisition of Eddie Guardado from the Mariners (anyone who's watched him throw lately knows he's not a major league pitcher anymore) and their inexplicable handling of Ryan Wagner among many other pitching gaffs (like signing Eric Milton for 3/24).  The gut reaction is to suggest that Wagner has failed as a major league pitcher, but if you can see beyond the end of your nose (or your ERA as the case may be) you'd know that Wagner has been monumentally unlucky and has, independent of his historically poor team defenses, pitched well enough to be an asset.  He's not fanning two per inning like he did in college, but his BB rates remained unchanged from his first year in the NCAA circuit (about 4.5 per 9 innings, which is not great but can be managed as long as you're fanning enough guys to get by), he's not giving up loads of longballs (about 1.1 per 9 innings...about NL average), and he's still overpowering about 8 hitters every 9 frames.  He's a good pitcher, and very likely to be called up to Washington immediately following his arrival where, with competent fielders behind him, he's going to prove as much to any doubters.

Felipe Lopez: Most of the available data on his fielding suggests that Lopez is and will continue to be a below average defensive shortstop, but certainly not such a poor fielder that he was costing the Reds that many hits.  On offense, you had to know that his 23 HRs in 2005 were a bit of a fluke (he didn't show that kind of power as a minor leaguer) but aside from a regression to a more normal power output from Lopez, his other predictive statistics have continued to improve in 2006.  For a player who, coming into this season had a K/BB of 380/145 (horrid!), his 66/47 thus far this year has got to be taken as an excellent sign.  He appears to be getting on top of the major league strike zone and the Reds, having invested 6+ years on his development traded him away and replaced him with...Willie Bloomquist's secret identical twin.

Brendan Harris: Scouts call him a "baseball player" meaning he does the little things right, can play multiple positions, is scrappy and hard nosed, and will fight for his playing time.  His toolkit includes the ability to make contact and the ability to field all over the infield, much like the man the Mariners have dubbed "Willie Boom Boom."  Harris projects to have a Bloomquist-esque career as a utility man, and not a very good one.

Royce Clayton: But it's OK, because by God, they got themselves a true major leaguer!  Royce Clayton's been playing for something like forty trillion years and for some unknown reason continues to get jobs with big-league clubs.  He's sold as a good defensive shortstop and a professional, but he hasn't been a good fielder since about 1997 nor a useful player in any regard since about 1999.  Why the Reds bothered to acquire him is beyond me.

Daryl Thompson: Last but not least on the comedy tour that is this trade round-up is the injury prone 23-year old pitching prospect who is no longer capable of starting full time, hasn't been effective over any significant stretch since 2003 and sports "when he's on his game" a 90ish mph fastball and mediocre off-speed stuff with poor command. Wow, I'm overwhelmed.

This trade is a complete farce and begs the question...was it intentionally this bad (I'd believe it was if the Nationals were the ones in a pennant race, but it's hard to believe the Reds gave up on their season just to do Bowden a favor) or are the Reds just the dumbest organization in baseball today.  I opened this piece by positing that there are 29 teams and that the Reds and Nationals are essentially working together at this point.  That's what they call a "hook" in the writing world, and it's a little hyperbolic, but both the Nats and the Reds have the misfortune of being run in very similar ways by similarly foolish general managers.  The Nats found the only GM in baseball they could fleece in a trade and boy did they go to town!  Next on the agenda...trading Jose Guillen to the desperate Yankees.  They'll probably ruin any gains they've made with this trade by picking up someone like Shawn Chacon as their compensation, but for the moment, Nationals fans (if there are any left after the bizarre '06 off-season) can enjoy the moment.