Serious Baseball: Jays-Brewers Trade

In a deal that occurred last week the Toronto Blue Jays sent 26-year-old pitcher Dave Bush, 26-year-old outfielder Gabe Gross, and 22-year-old minor league pitcher to the Brewers in exchange for 28-year-old first baseman Lyle Overbay.

Here is each of the involved players 2005 and career statistics, as well as their relevant salary information:

Blue Jays receive

Lyle Overbay (28 year old First Baseman, made $450,000 in 2005, and is arbitration eligible for 2006)

2005: 537 AB, .276/.367/.449, 19 HR, 72 RBI, 80 Runs, 16 BRAA, 15 FRAA, 6.5 WARP3

Career: 1382 AB, .285/.373/.450, 39 HR, 188 RBI, 186 Runs, 40 BRAA, 36 FRAA, 16.0 WARP3

Brewers receive

Dave Bush (26 year old RH Starting Pitcher with only 234.0 inning of major league experience, made $330,000 in 2005 and is arbitration eligible for 2006)

Major League Career: 234.0 IP, 10-15, 4.15 ERA, 9.1 H/9—1.2 HR/9—2.1 BB/9—5.4 K/9

Minor League Career: 348.3 IP, 23-16, 3.38 ERA, 8.6 H/9—0.7 HR/9—1.7 BB/9—8.4 K/9

Gabe Gross (26 year old LF/RF with only 221 AB of major league experience, made $320,000 in 2005, is arbitration eligible for 2006)

Major League Career: 221 AB, .226/.316/.326, 4 HR, 23 RBI, 29 Runs, -10 BRAA, 5 FRAA, 1.2 WARP3

Minor League Career: .282/.377/.439, 40 HR, 239 RBI, 255 Runs

2005 Minor League (Triple A Syracuse): .297/.380/.438, 6 HR, 46 RBI, 64 Runs

Zach Jackson (22 year old LH Starting Pitcher with only 175.7 innings of professional baseball experience, minor league contract)

Minor League Career: 175.7 IP, 16-8, 4.05 ERA, 9.9 H/9—0.5 HR/9—2.3 BB/9—6.9 K/9

This deal is, in some ways, similar to the deal the Boston Red Sox made a few weeks ago with the Marlins to acquire 25 year old pitcher Josh Beckett in that, like the Red Sox, the Jays dealt youth away to get more established youth.

There is one big difference though; one of the players the Blue Jays gave up has already shown some success at the big league level. As you recall, besides the two AB’s that SS Hanley Ramirez got for the Red Sox last season, the four players they traded to the Marlins had absolutely no major league experience.

This was one of the main reasons I ruled the Red Sox the winners of this trade, barely. I cannot rule the Blue Jays winners of this deal though.

While Overbay is still young, he is going to be 29 next month, meaning he will be crossing the river called “30” in a little over a year and he will no longer be young. While he is, without question, a very talented hitter, that is very underrated, and very cheap, so were the players the Jays gave up.

Dave Bush is very good pitcher that has pitched well at the Big League level. Remember, the American League average ERA last season was 4.35, meaning that Bush, only 26 years old, was already better than this. Couple that with the fact that he was a very good minor league pitcher and it would seem the Jays would want nothing to do with dealing him to another team. He’s at the age to breakout, and has the stuff, and numbers to do it.

Gabe Gross has been a great minor league player who, unjustifiably so, hasn’t gotten a full-time job as a major leaguer. Gross is a better option in RF for the Jays, and for some reason they can’t see this and believe that position belongs to Alexis Rios even though he put up a .262/.306/.397 batting line last season.

It wasn’t smart for the Jays to deal Gross in this deal as he looks like he could be another Lyle Overbay in a few seasons if they gave him the playing time. But, they won’t, so I guess from their slanted point of view it was good to deal Gross. I’ll tell you this though, it was definitely a good career move for Gross as he will most likely get more playing time for the Brewers.

Zach Jackson, while having great potential, hasn’t put up great numbers in his short professional career yet, and even though he may in the future, it was not that unwise of the Jays to deal him to acquire a player like Overbay.

The problem was dealing Bush and Gross. Bush’s success at the major league level, and Gross’s On-Base potential alone was too much to deal. Even without Jackson in the deal.

The amount of payroll dealt in the trade is very small, and unsubstantial when it comes to determining the winner. Actually, in this trade, each player is a very good bargain.

Now Blue Jays fans, please don’t think that I think Overbay isn’t a good player and that you won’t enjoy having him on your team because you will. As I said earlier, he is unquestionably a very good, and underrated hitter. The talent given up for him was too much though.

So to the Brewers I say, “Cheers!” I thoroughly enjoyed watching you play .500- baseball last season. And with this trade it looks like you may be doing it for a few more years.

Winner: Milwaukee Brewers

Thank you for reading. If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.