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Serious
Baseball: It's Just Gross, Gabe Gross.
by Frank
Bundy III
March 20, 2005
During a radio interview that I conducted on March 18, 2005 on
“Radio BaseballMuse,” at BaseballMuse.com, host
Brandon Wilson asked for my opinion on many of the ongoing spring
training position battles this year. One of the battles that we
discussed more extensively was the one that is going on in the Toronto
Blue Jays’ outfield right now.
Toronto has five outfielders vying for three positions: 26 year-old
Vernon Wells, 31 year-old Frank Catalanotto, 24 year-old Alex Rios,
28 year-old Reed Johnson, and 25 year-old Gabe Gross.
With Vernon Wells already having CF locked up, this leaves Catalanotto,
Johnson, Rios and Gross to battle for the remaining corner positions.
A platoon-tandem of Catalanotto and Johnson makes the most sense
in LF. Both players dominate opposite handed pitchers (Catalanotto
is LH, Johnson is RH), while struggling vs. pitchers of the same
handedness. This is the solution that the Blue Jays currently have
listed on their official website; and is also the best solution,
in my opinion.
Now that we have LF and CF set, all that remains is RF. The two
players vying for that slot are Gross and Rios. On the Blue Jays’
website they have Rios listed as the starter, with Johnson listed
as the backup. They don’t even have Gross listed at this position…he
is listed as the third string LF behind Catalanotto and Johnson.
I, for one, don’t understand the logic behind this and hope
for the Blue Jays’ sake that this is not the final solution
that they have come to.
Gross should be the starting RF on opening day.
Last year, Gross got injured and only managed 149 AB’s in Toronto.
He did horrible in this brief stint (.209/.311/.310, 3 HR)
but showed encouraging discipline at the plate.
While striking out too often, he also drew much more BB’s than
the league average:
K: 20.9 % of Plate Appearances (League Average in 2004: 17.08%)
BB: 12.8 % of Plate Appearances (League Average in 2004: 8.69%)
The plate discipline that he showed in that brief stint last season
combined with the plate discipline, and numbers that he put up in
his minor league career leads me to believe that Gross will be a
very-solid major leaguer.
Gross Minor League Career:
1439 AB, .279/.379/.444, 38 HR, 208 RBI, 214 Runs, 20/13 SB/CS
(13.1 BB% / 17.8 K%)
Gross 2004 Minor League Statistics (AAA Syracuse)
377 AB, .294/.381/.454, 9 HR, 54 RBI, 52 Runs, 4/5 SB/CS (12.2
BB% / 18.7 K%)
You can see that Gross has been a very good player. Now let’s
compare him to his competition for the starting RF position, Alex
Rios.
Last season was Rios’s first time at the big league level,
and he got significant playing time.
Alex Rios (2004)
426 AB, .286/.338/.383, 1 HR, 28 RBI, 55 Runs, 15/3 SB/CS (6.7
BB% / 18.26 K%)
That is not a bad season by any means, but that empty batting average
is directly connected to him walking less than league average, and
striking out more. That plate discipline would be excused if it
weren’t an attribute that he had already shown throughout his
minor league career:
Rios Minor League Career
2149 AB, .293/.338/.401, 20 HR, 267 RBI, 262 Runs, 64/38
SB/CS (5.7 BB% / 12.9 K%)
Rios 2004 Minor League Statistics (AAA Syracuse)
185 AB, .259/.292/.373, 3 HR, 23 RBI, 14 Runs, 2/1 SB/CS
(4.6 BB% / 15.4 K%)
As you can see, that plate discipline that Rios showed in 2004
with the Blue Jays wasn’t just an “adjustment” variable,
it was actually a good indicator of how good Rios really is in that
department—the department that directly correlates with offensive
potential.
As shown earlier, Gross is the opposite of Rios in terms of plate
discipline — he can actually draw a BB.
The only advantage that Rios has over Gross is that he is faster.
But his minor league SB% (64/30 = 63%) doesn’t exactly show
that he knows how to use his speed that well.
Rios is also a better fielder than Gross, but not by as much as
people tend to believe.
The point is that Rios’ speed and defense do not make up for
the difference between the two offensively. Players who cannot draw
BB’s, even when they don’t strike out often (Rios) tend
not to pan out as often as players to know how to draw BB’s
(Gross).
Rios got called up as soon as he did because of the absolute dominance
he showed at the AA level in 2003 (514 AB, .352/.402/.521, 11
HR). You’d think that he would have to show some semblance
of that dominance at the AAA level to get called up to the big league
club-- which he clearly did not do, but got called up anyways.
I believe that what you saw out of Rios in 2004 is fairly close
to what can expected out of him throughout his career, based on
his plate discipline. Gross, on the other hand, has the plate discipline,
and ability to get on-base without getting base hits, that leaves
him without a clear-cut ceiling for how well he can perform.
The Blue Jays must recognize this sooner than later. They must give
Gross the job to see if he can live up to his minor league numbers.
If he does, Alex Rios could be great trade bait for the future;
and if he doesn’t, Alex Rios will be right there to step in.
Now I’m not saying, in any way, that Rios will not be a good
player in the major leagues. I am just saying that between Gross
and Rios, the chances are much, much better that Gross will be the
better of the two. I actually believe that Gross will mature into
a very solid major leaguer.
Rios should start the season as the fourth OF for the Blue Jays.
After all, last year was not horrible, and he is a valuable player.
Gross just has more offensive potential, and a lot of it.
On one final note, I would like to discuss another thing that Brandon
and I talked about yesterday on the radio show. He asked me “Do
you think major league clubs look at plate discipline as much as
you do, and make decisions on players accordingly?”
Essentially, what he was asking me was if major league teams use
plate discipline stats as a deciding factor…like I tend to
do.
My answer to this was that I do think that all teams are aware of
plate discipline, and how it affects overall offensive performance.
But they are in a position where they cannot afford to play a player
who is performing worse, because his plate discipline dictates that
in the future he will perform better.
If a player has horrible plate discipline, but is putting up monster
numbers, I wouldn’t expect a team to sit this player in favor
of a player who has put up mediocre numbers, but has great plate
discipline…even if it is more likely that the latter will perform
better down the road.
Understanding this, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Blue Jays
started Rios in RF this season, because they know that they probably
can get a season from him similar to 2004. They may be reluctant
to take a chance on losing that output. This would be a decision
I wouldn’t endorse, but one I would understand.
I am a baseball writer who has nothing to lose when saying “I
would start Gross over Rios based on the great plate discipline
he has shown.” The Toronto Blue Jays, on the other hand, can
lose games, and millions of dollars based on that decision.
With that said, I still believe Gross deserves the chance to start
in RF this year and I believe he warrants the Blue Jays taking a
chance on him. It is up to the Blue Jays whether they want to “chicken
out,” or take that chance. Just like any other chance one takes
in this world, all you can do is weigh the positive outcomes vs.
the negative ones. Starting Gross has too much positive potential
to just “sit on” Alex Rios and continually get mediocre
year after mediocre year.
If you
have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do
not hesitate to email me at Frank@athomeplate.com.
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