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Serious
Baseball: Roberto Alomar for Hall of Fame?
by Frank
Bundy III
March 23, 2005
Now that Roberto
Alomar has called it quits on his magnificent 17-year career, the
question becomes, “Should Alomar be inducted into the Hall
of Fame?”
To answer this question, let’s have a look at the current Hall-of-Fame
class of second basemen and their statistics, with Alomar included
so we can see where he ranks among them (sorted by OPS):
| First
|
Last
|
AVG
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
OPS
|
EqA
|
Rate
|
| Rogers
|
Hornsby
|
0.358
|
0.434
|
0.577
|
1.011
|
0.330
|
98
|
| Charlie
|
Gehringer |
0.320 |
0.404
|
0.480 |
0.884 |
0.293 |
104 |
| Jackie
|
Robinson
|
0.311
|
0.409
|
0.474
|
0.883
|
0.309
|
109
|
| Eddie
|
Collins
|
0.333
|
0.424
|
0.429
|
0.853
|
0.306
|
103
|
| Tony
|
Lazzeri
|
0.292
|
0.380
|
0.467
|
0.847
|
0.286
|
98
|
| Nap |
LaJoie |
0.338 |
0.380 |
0.466 |
.0846 |
0.303 |
107 |
| Bobby
|
Doerr
|
0.288
|
0.362
|
0.461
|
0.823
|
0.280
|
108
|
| Rod
|
Carew
|
0.328
|
0.393
|
0.429
|
0.822
|
0.301
|
98
|
| Joe
|
Morgan
|
0.271
|
0.392
|
0.427
|
0.819
|
0.308
|
101
|
| Roberto
|
Alomar
|
0.300
|
0.371
|
0.443
|
0.814
|
0.295
|
100
|
| Frankie
|
Frisch
|
0.316
|
0.369
|
0.432
|
0.801
|
0.276
|
107
|
| Ryne
|
Sandberg
|
0.285
|
0.344
|
0.452
|
0.796
|
0.282
|
105
|
| Billy
|
Herman
|
0.304
|
0.367
|
0.407
|
0.774
|
0.284
|
103
|
| Bid
|
McPhee
|
0.271
|
0.355
|
0.372
|
0.727
|
0.252
|
108
|
| Red
|
Schoendienst
|
0.289
|
0.337
|
0.387
|
0.724
|
0.261
|
107
|
| Nelli
|
Fox
|
0.288
|
0.348
|
0.363
|
0.711
|
0.258
|
104
|
| Bill
|
Mazeroski
|
0.260
|
0.299
|
0.367
|
0.666
|
0.250
|
113
|
| Johnny
|
Evers
|
0.270
|
0.356
|
0.334
|
0.690
|
0.269
|
100
|
***EqA
is a metric that measures a players “total offense,” invented
by Baseball Prospectus.
It is league-era, and park adjusted. An average hitter would have
an EqA of .260…click on the link for more info.
Rate
is a defensive metric adjusted for League Era, also invented by
Baseball Prospectus, where “100” is the rate for an average
fielder, (Rate
2 is actually the statistic displayed)…again, click on
the link for more info.***
Just a quick glance at this list will show that Alomar clearly is
in the same class as those current Hall-of-Fame second basemen.
For more clarity though, here is Alomar’s ranking in each category
presented:
AVG: 9th
OBP: 8th
SLG: 7th
OPS: 10th
EqA: 7th
Rate: 14th
A point of interest here is that according to Rate,
Alomar was an “average” fielder for his career. Yet he
won 10 Gold Glove awards. This disparity does two things:
- Shows how
bad a metric Fielding Percentage is when it comes to measuring
fielding efficiency. Alomar’s Gold Gloves were primarily
won because of his consistent high fielding percentage (.984
for career). But, fielding percentage isn’t a viable fielding
metric because it doesn’t measure, “balls-not-gotten-to,”
something that “Rate” does. This is unfair because
if a groundball rolled by Alomar that he should have gotten
to, but didn’t, nothing negative happens to his fielding
percentage…even though that ground ball should have turned
into an out. Rate solves this problem by starting fielding evaluation
from at team standpoint, then distributing credit for outs amongst
the fielders individually. By doing this, all balls in play
are accounted for, and “negative” credit would be
given to fielder who didn’t reach balls that they were
supposed to.
***For a better understanding of why to start evaluating
defense on a team level, please read this article: http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2620***
-
Makes
Alomar look better defensively than he actually was to the
people who now matter to him most…the Hall-of-Fame voters.
***Warning, the next portion of this article is “sectioned-off”
because it uses Alomar’s PCA statistics to rank him amongst
the other Hall-of-Fame second basemen. If you haven’t
ready any of our introductory PCA articles, or aren’t
interested in it, feel free to just skip this “flagged”
section.***
-PCA Portion of the Article-
Now, I know PCA is still in a “fledgling” state
due to some copyright and legal delays we here at “Serious
Baseball” have been having, but here is the best chart
to compare Alomar to the other Hall-of-Fame second basemen,
using PCA statistics (sorted by TV+):
For an explanation of what each PCA statistic means please
go here: http://athomeplate.com/sb105.shtml
MOV= Marginal Offensive Value
MDV= Marginal Defensive Value
TMV =Total Marginal Value
OV+ =Offensive Value over Margin (MOV/Expected Offensive
Value) * 100)
DV+= Defensive Value over Margin (MDV/Expected Defensive
Value) * 100)
TV+= Total Value over Margin (TMV/Expected Total Value)
* 100)
| First
|
Last
|
MOV
|
MDV
|
TMV
|
OV+
|
DV+
|
TV+
|
| Rogers
|
Hornsby
|
4579
|
1126
|
5705
|
361
|
90
|
230
|
| Jackie
|
Robinson
|
2348
|
872
|
3220
|
262
|
145
|
217
|
| Joe
|
Morgan
|
5129
|
1208
|
6337
|
291
|
86
|
200
|
| Eddie
|
Collins
|
4669
|
1738
|
6407
|
271
|
110
|
194
|
| Nap
|
LaJoie
|
3350
|
2189
|
5539
|
217
|
141
|
179
|
| Rod
|
Carew
|
3743
|
767
|
4510
|
221
|
83
|
172
|
| Charlie
|
Gehringer
|
3427
|
1320
|
4747
|
225
|
104
|
168
|
| Johnny
|
Evers
|
1653
|
1816
|
3469
|
153
|
170
|
161
|
| Bid
|
McPhee
|
2012
|
3322
|
5334
|
136
|
179
|
160
|
| Frankie
|
Frisch
|
2513
|
1958
|
4471
|
157
|
146
|
152
|
| Bobby
|
Doerr
|
1925
|
1494
|
3419
|
147
|
131
|
140
|
| Billy
|
Herman
|
1826
|
1744
|
3570
|
132
|
149
|
140
|
| Ryne
|
Sandberg
|
2475
|
1281
|
3756
|
158
|
113
|
139
|
| Roberto
|
Alomar
|
2927
|
1009
|
3936
|
172
|
87
|
137
|
| Tony
|
Lazzeri
|
1784
|
767
|
2551
|
157
|
80
|
122
|
| Nelli
|
Fox
|
1906
|
1826
|
3732
|
108
|
135
|
120
|
| Red
|
Schoendienst
|
1549
|
1423
|
2972
|
99
|
124
|
109
|
| Bill
|
Mazeroski
|
1042
|
1808
|
2850
|
69
|
141
|
102
|
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I think it is safe to say that Alomar should be a Hall-of-Famer
based on the numbers above. But there is a problem…Hall-of-Fame
voters don’t use analyses like the ones above to determine
if a player qualifies for induction (besides AVG). They tend to
use “Old-School Statistics” like AVG, HR, RBI, Runs, and
Fielding Percentage.
Now I disagree with using those statistics as judging points because
the ones shown above are definitely better metrics for evaluating
a player’s performance. But the only way for me to make a valid
argument for, or against Alomar’s induction would be to use
those “old school stats” as a base for my final judgment.
With that in mind, here is a chart with those stats (Chart sorted
by AVG):
| First
|
Last
|
AVG
|
HR
|
RBI
|
Runs
|
Fldg
% |
| Rogers
|
Hornsby
|
0.358
|
301
|
1584
|
1579
|
0.958
|
| Nap
|
LaJoie
|
0.338
|
83
|
1559
|
1504
|
0.967
|
| Eddie
|
Collins
|
0.333
|
47
|
1300
|
1821
|
0.969
|
| Rod
|
Carew
|
0.328
|
92
|
1015
|
1424
|
0.985
|
| Charlie
|
Gehringer
|
0.320
|
184
|
1427
|
1774
|
0.976
|
| Frankie
|
Frisch
|
0.316
|
105
|
1244
|
1532
|
0.970
|
| Jackie
|
Robinson
|
0.311
|
137
|
734
|
947
|
0.983
|
| Billy
|
Herman
|
0.304
|
47
|
839
|
1163
|
0.968
|
| Roberto
|
Alomar
|
0.300
|
210
|
1134
|
1508
|
0.984
|
| Tony
|
Lazzeri
|
0.292
|
178
|
1191
|
986
|
0.965
|
| Red
|
Schoen
|
0.289
|
84
|
773
|
1223
|
0.982
|
| Nelli
|
Fox
|
0.288
|
35
|
790
|
1279
|
0.984
|
| Bobby
|
Doerr
|
0.288
|
223
|
1247
|
1094
|
0.980
|
| Ryne
|
Sandberg
|
0.285
|
282
|
1061
|
1318
|
0.989
|
| Joe
|
Morgan
|
0.271
|
268
|
1133
|
1650
|
0.981
|
| Bid
|
McPhee
|
0.271
|
53
|
1067
|
1678
|
0.944
|
| Johnny
|
Evers
|
0.270
|
12
|
538
|
919
|
0.953
|
| Bill
|
Mazeroski
|
0.260
|
138
|
853
|
769
|
0.983
|
***Bid McPhee’s considerably low fielding percentage is due
to the fact that he played before the turn of the century when players
didn’t use gloves…they used their bare hands. The league
average fielding during McPhee’s career was .919. The fielding
metric used above, “Rate,” shows how good of a fielder
McPhee really was.***
Alomar’s rankings for each category are as follows:
AVG: 9th
HR: 5th
RBI: 8
Runs: 7
Fldg %: Tied 3rd
Using this chart (with statistics similar to those that the
Hall-of-Fame voters will use) actually makes Alomar “fit in”
more with these Hall of Famers than the statistics above do. This
is primarily because of his high fielding percentage, which ranks
Alomar 3rd amongst these players.
After seeing all the statistics (“old-school,” and “new-school”),
we can see that Alomar has definitely played well enough to be a
Hall-of-Famer…but will he be inducted?
I don’t think so.
Although he was a great player, Alomar will always be remembered
for one thing…his confrontation with umpire John Hirschbeck.
In this confrontation Alomar “spat” in Hirschbeck’s
face, an image that will forever taint his legacy.
Unfortunately, the Hall-of-Fame does look at a player’s
image when justifying qualification for induction…it is not
all about performance.
Now, if Alomar were at the top of the charts presented here (think
Rogers Hornsby), we would have a different story. His on-field performance
would be too good to not induct him. Unfortunately, Alomar
is only “middle-of-the-pack” amongst the presented Hall-of-Famers,
leaving a “trace of a doubt.” And, unfortunately for Alomar,
the “Hirschbeck Incident” will enhance that “trace
of a doubt” to the point where it will prevent him from becoming
a Hall-of-Famer.
So the answer to the question asked at the beginning, “Should
Alomar be inducted into the Hall of Fame?” is Yes.
As for the question, “Will Alomar be inducted
into the Hall of Fame?” The answer is No.
If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please
do not hesitate to email me at Frank@athomeplate.com.
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