What are they putting in the water in the Tiger clubhouse anyway? The suddenly explosive franchise has erupted onto the scene in 2006 with a record setting barrage of home runs that has people wondering just how many different ways can you say "It's outta here!" In the first three games of the season, the Tigers out-homered the entire rest of the AL Central 15-14! Next up, finding a way to homer their way into some pitching.
A big part of the explosion has been the heroics of Chris Shelton, who has started the season on a tear, hitting .500 (18/36) with only 5 of those hits in the form of singles. Yes, that's thirteen extra base hits including seven longballs in just nine ballgames. Obviously, no matter what we think of Shelton, we know he's not going to keep hitting at that insane clip, but the question has to be asked, "Is this guy for real?"
Here's a summary of his minor league career, for those of you who may not have realized he was on the way up:
| G | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | 2B% | 3B% | HR% | K% | BB% | BABIP | OPS |
| 339 | 1186 | .332 | 48 | 227 | 6.6 | 0.3 | 3.4 | 17.1 | 13.6 | .386 | .967 |
That is the classic profile of a minor leaguer who absolutely stings the ball when he makes contact. That .386 BABIP (without the benefit of any foot-speed at all!) is among the very best in AA or AAA for that time period even with inferior fielders and pitchers causing the AAA average to rise somewhat higher than the .295-.300 it tends to rest on in the majors. Those percentage totals compare favorably to the likes of Luis Gonzalez circa 2003. At this early stage of his career, he's a doubles machine with ever increasing tendency toward converting those doubles into home runs. Sooner or later, the alert minor league analyst knew Chris Shelton was going to hit for a lot of power and maintain an outstanding batting average.
He even fired a warning salvo our way last season when he managed to hack it with big leaguers to the tune of an .870 OPS in a fairly unfavorable park for home runs. He touched 'em all 18 times in 388 at bats, a rate which would make most 25 year olds green with envy. I don't know how many of you noticed, considering which team he played for, but the smart play was to draft Shelton in the 18th round of your fantasy league while everyone else drafted first basemen with glittering reputations and huge contracts in the first several rounds and chuckle your way to a monster season on the cheap. I know I did.
It's my job, though, to give you an idea of what to expect from him now that the season has begun and he's gotten everyone's attention. The key here is the K and BB rates. Throughout his minor league career, Shelton walked almost as often as he struck out. The Ks are important because every time you strike out, you failed to put the ball in play, and every time you put the ball in play, you have a certain expectation as to how many of them will be base hits. Shelton has always struck out at a decent rate, pretty much smack dab on the average mark...always that is until last year.
2005 K/PA: .202 (20.2%, AL Average was 15.8%)
You can see he's never been particularly averse to the punch-out, but last year was pretty bad, even for him. Meanwhile, he's always walked at an incredible rate (about twice the major league average)...until last year.
2005 BB/PA: 0.079 (7.9%, AL Average was 7.8%)
This is pretty much what you'd expect from a first year player just getting used to the increased level of competition, but that means we can also expect both his K rate and his BB rate to improve as he gets more comfortable. Last year he hit .299/.360/.510 (BA/OBP/SLG), so how will an improved approach at the plate affect this line? In his rookie season, he scalded the ball for a BABIP of .346, showing his continued ability to make FIRM contact when he puts the bat on the ball. Assuming he plays nearly every day, we can expect him to pick up about 200 more AB this year (240 more PA). If we project that his K rate will regress toward his minor league averages, we can expect him to convert 14 strikeouts to balls in play this year (give or take a handful) and at his BABIP, about 5 of those will become hits, so we can expect his BA to top .300 this year, all else being equal. But all else isn't equal. He's also likely to draw more walks this year, which will take a bite out of his at bats, but probably not the positive results. With that in mind, I'm projecting a batting average near .310.
The increased walk totals will also lead to a better IPD, probably approaching .075 (as opposed to last season's .061), which puts his OBP in the vicinity of .385, though I believe this to be the area where there is the highest probability of a breakout season. Throughout his minor league career, he was closer to .090 than .060 and after a year of adjustment, it is at least possible he could be right back to walking twice as often as he did last season.
With at least seven homers and 13 XBH already in the bank, we probably shouldn't project his power output in a vacuum as though we had no new information. If I were making this projection prior to the start of the season, I would point out that his double rate (5.1%) was also significantly below his ceiling in his rookie season, and call for an upward adjustment across the board, but with this onslaught already underway, I feel it prudent to adjust even further up the scale and project an ISOP increase from .211 to .240. When this season is over, the Tigers will be more than glad they cut bait with Carlos Pena. With a .310/.385/.550 season under his belt, Shelton will probably never be quite as easy to come by in the draft again. As the Major League Baseball website put it earlier in the week, "Chris Shelton is making himself a household name." The core of Justin Verlander, Jeremy Bonderman, Chris Shelton, Curtis Granderson, Brandon Inge, and Ivan Rodriguez may be one of the most entertaining groups in baseball in the here and now, and certainly represents the most hope the town has had in years for a return to contention.
em>Questions or comments? Email the author at m_souders@yahoo.com.
