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Slow Down
it's April!
by Going
Postal in Cincinnati
April 21, 2006
As I
sit here today and reflect on my Fantasy Team(s) one thought keeps
going through my head “slow down, it’s April!” You
see I have to remind myself of that daily, if not hourly. It’s
easy to get nervous three weeks into the season. Is my guy hurt?
Can I wait on my player to warm up? Can I pass up this diamond in
the rough on the waiver wire?
Maneuvering this mine field is what separates the so called men
from the boys. They say that a league can be won or lost from your
draft and I’m not here to dispute that. In fact I agree whole-heartedly,
which is why I’m telling you not to compound a poor draft by
making moves that you will regret down the road. You need to give
players time to produce but at the same time if you see an opportunity
you should make an informed decision - never give up trying to improve
your team. It’s the end of April, we have 4 more months of
Baseball and for our purposes, baseball statistics left to accumulate;
plenty of time to win or lose a league.
Fantasy baseball is a game of strategies and I hope that by now
if you haven’t had one all along, you are actively trying to
prepare a strategy in order to win your league. I will discuss 3
things that should be done in April by anyone that plays the game
to W.I.N
W: (Watch or Work) the waiver wire
I: Initiate trades
N: Never give up
The first thing I do in April is get to know my team. The draft
is over, we have a few starts under our belt and it’s time
to really get into the numbers of your players. It’s time to
look at your team position by position and evaluate what is working
and what may be a potential problem. Make projections of your mix
of players and decide if your “mix” will make the grade
or come up short. If you identify a potential shortfall in a category
the waiver wire is a great place to find diamonds in the rough especially
early. Unless you’re in a deep mixed league there should be
quality guys on the waiver wire - some unproven, some forgotten,
and some simply overlooked.
As a responsible fantasy owner you should watch the wire diligently
for those “April Showers” you know, the shower of players
that hit the wire in April. The moves that you make in April have
more affect on the final placement of your team than any other factor
after the draft. The players that you drop will have less time to
impact your team and those that you acquire will have more time
to help your team. Just keep in mind that the pitcher you dropped
may get it together and that hitter that you dropped may find his
swing as there is still plenty of time. Don’t make matters
worse by dropping a player too soon and giving your opponent those
home runs or wins.
We play a game that’s based on stats; use them to your advantage.
You need to know your players, and maybe more importantly, your
opponents’ strengths and weaknesses. If you have identified
a weakness in your team and you just don’t see a viable option
on the waiver wire, remember - initiate a trade.
Knowledge is power and if you know more than your opponent you should
fare well in the high stakes world of trade negotiations! One thing
I like to do is talk; I guess it’s the salesman in me. I love
the art of closing the deal! Hmm…..Sounds like another article.
For now let me just say that trading is nothing more than knowing
more than your opponent. April is a great time to scare other owners.
A few home runs, or a few points on batting average can swing a
team from 10th to 2nd in a day, However when
you are sitting with 36 points and the leader has 142 it’s
easy to get nervous and make a bad trade. It’s your job to
lay the ground work that makes that owner nervous.
Most leagues have a message board and this is a great place to talk
about players. Not everyone has time to watch baseball games all
day and check splits. Just like the “force” in Star Wars,
your Jedi mind tricks will work on the simple minded here too. I
love to talk about how well my players are doing; I want people
paying top dollar for my players. When one of my players is hot
and playing over his head and I feel it’s time to sell high,
I let people know all about my player. You are making a sale aren't
you? So, why not talk up your product? Simple sales techniques work
fine, “feature benefit” Randy Johnson’s most obvious
feature or attraction for leagues counting strike outs is just that,
the K. The benefit: Randy Johnson can single handedly make up 100
strike outs by the end of the season over a typical pitcher. And
in a 12 team league 100 k’s could be 5 points or more easily.
I also want owners paying top dollar for players that I am not after
in trade, simply put, if they are over-paying in another trade that
doesn’t involve me, they are more than likely weakening there
team overall. Drive down the value of those players not off to a
good start in April and see if you can’t make that owner nervous.
When they ask you why you want them, you need not tell them because
you believe in career averages, or not in a sophomore slump, simply
tell them that you have the depth or space on your roster to take
the gamble. Some owners don’t like it but if your opponent
is actively shopping a player to trade has flaws, expose them. Why
should you make it easy for that mean old owner ahead of you in
the standings while he tries to shop a lemon on your friends and
co-participants in the league? Why, I just couldn’t sleep at
night if I didn’t remind them of his recurring back problem
or that he has a 30 point higher BA before the All Star break than
after.
The last thing to remember in April is to never give up - it’s
only April. So, Derrek Lee is out for a while and you missed the
live draft and got stuck with three second basemen. Well, I guess
you’re just going to have to work a little harder this year!
You need to work the wire for a replacement and think about trading!
If you’re lucky you can trade two good players for one great
player or maybe one of your not so good closers and a DL player
for a solid closer on a good team.
You also need to maximize your roster daily and remember that unlike
offensive categories that can only be made up by double headers
or plugging in players when others have off days, pitching stats
are about maximizing every inning. What I mean by that is - for
those of you in a league that has an innings pitched maximum, wouldn’t
we all like our pitchers to go as few innings as possible while
accumulating the most K’s and the Lowest ERA and WHIP? There
are only so many Wins and Saves available but having said that it’s
still easier to make up pitching stats than it is to make up hitting
stats. Remember it’s the strike out rate that’s so important.
The strike out rate is where you can make up ground…
….but we are getting ahead of ourselves, Slow Down, It’s
only April!
Share your thoughts or comments in our forums.
You can reach the writer at Goingpostal@mlbradiofans.com
(editor's
note: this article was originally run in April 2005)
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