Top Prospects - Part I

by Daniel Paulling
April 25, 2005

This is part one of a three part series. I will list 51 guys that I think are the top prospects in baseball. With each player I made a comparison to a player in the Major Leagues. In one case, I compared Joel Guzman to Juan Gonzalez. I do not think that Guzman is going to play right field I just think that he can produce statistics similar to Juan Gone.

1. C Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins – The Twins passed on Mark Prior to get this guy, and Mauer will not disappoint. His knee problems have been bothering him a little, but even if you move this guy from a black offense hole to first or DH, he will still produce with the best of them. He is the next…Mike Piazza.

2. SP Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners – Hernandez did not make a name for himself before last season, but what an incredible 2004 season he had. In sixteen starts in High A Ball, Hernandez had a sick 11.15 K/9 ratio with a 2.54 ERA over 94 innings. The Mariners did not waste any time and promoted him to Double A where over ten starts, he had an ERA of 3.30. His talent and stuff are tremendous, and if he pitches well in Triple A, look for him soon. He is the next…Mark Prior.

3. SS Joel Guzman, Los Angeles Dodgers – This past season Guzman played in pitcher friendly leagues in the minors and he still slugged over .520 at both levels. He earned the highest signing bonus in club history, which shows that the team really likes this guy. You should too. He is the next…Juan Gonzalez.

4. OF Delmon Young, Tampa Bay Devil Rays – Because of the Devil Rays’ worse record in 2001, they got this fella. I bet any team would willingly finish with one more loss for this guy. Dmitri’s young brother has a quick, powerful swing and great plate discipline. Young has the talent to hit forty homers with a .300 average, which pretty much labels him a future superstar as best as can be described. He is the next…Manny Ramirez.

5. 3B Andy Marte, Atlanta Braves – This guy has tremendous talents. I know that’s not going to tide you over, so I’ll tell more. Marte has excellent power, great plate discipline, and can play good to great defense. He is the type of guy that while in his prime, will finish in the Top 10 for the Most Valuable Player Award and that is not an understatement. He is the next…Chipper Jones.

6. 3B Ian Stewart, Colorado Rockies – Another third baseman already? Aw, what the heck! Stewart will be playing this season and it’s definitely worth a ticket to see him in batting practice. Stewart was drafted tenth overall in the 2003 draft and is already slated for the hot corner at Coors. There will be some growing pain, but he will impress soon because of his plate discipline and power. He is (also) the next…Chipper Jones.

7. SP Scott Kazmir, Tampa Bay Devil Rays – What were the Mets thinking? I love how they make the mistakes that make them lose. Anyway, Kazmir is has a mid 90s fastball, a beautiful slider, and a good changeup that can and will improve. This kid has outstanding stuff and will strike out a tremendous amount of hitters throughout his career. He is the next…Randy Johnson (minus the extra dominance of the splitter).

8. 2B Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee Brewers – The Brewers have built a tremendous collection of minor league talent and will begin to contend in the near future. The main guy that will revolve around will be Weeks. He has work ethic, tools, baseball smarts, and a nice personality. A) How can you root against him and b) he’ll be pretty darn awesome. He is the next…Michael Young (2004 stats).

9. 1B Casey Kotchman, Los Angeles Angels – Kotchman has faced several freak injuries recently, something that is not good at all. If healthy, Kotchman can hit for a high average, plus a few bombs, maybe 30. That all depends on whether Kotchman stays healthy and that is not a given. Here is to hoping Kotchman stays healthy and produces well. He is the next…Mike Sweeney.

10. 3B Dallas McPherson, Los Angeles Angels – This is the 3rd third baseman that I’ve listed in the top ten. The hot corner is already very deep and these players will just add to the amazing depth. He is a very likely favorite to win the Rookie of the Year next season, and he just might be ready to produce like he will in his prime years. McPherson is quite comparable to the guy he is replacing. He is the next…Troy Glaus.

11. 1B Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers – Think of a big guy with bulging biceps that can hit a home run for miles. That’s Prince Fielder. He won the Midwest League MVP in 2003 and hit for power at AA last year. Expect him to spend time in AAA this year, before getting the call late 2005 or beginning of 2006. At this time, Lyle Overbay will be expected to learn a new position or to join another team. He is the next…Jim Thome.

12. SP Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants – Cain is a power starter by all means. He throws near 100 mph, with a slurve and changeup. He dominated A ball last year, but still has to pitch at AA and AAA. These levels should not pose a tremendous problem, despite the stats from last year. This guy is a very promising arm and should produce well at the highest level. He is the next…Javier Vazquez.

13. OF Jason Kubel, Minnesota Twins – Kubel tore up his knee in Spring Training, which put a severe impediment upon his chances of producing like he can this year at the Major League level. He will probably be out until midseason, when he will go to AAA and dominate opposing pitchers. Kubel will then be called up to the Majors and will produce quite well in September, but nothing special. 2006 will be his year to shine. He is the next…Todd Helton (minus Coors Field inflation).

14. OF Jeff Francoeur, Atlanta Braves – Despite his problem of not being able to draw a walk, Francoeur is probably one of the best outfield hitters in the Majors. He has a chance to be a very good hitter with a high slugging percentage, but his on-base percentage might be a little low. His talents will probably give him 25-30 homers and a goodly amount of doubles. He is the next…Eric Chavez.

15. SP Jeff Francis, Colorado Rockies – WARNING! I am putting a Coors Field warning on this guy. His stats will be inflated, but he will still be good. If he were on solid ground, Francis would be a staff ace, 200 IP with a sub 3.20 ERA with his low 90s fastball, curveball, changeup, command, and changing of pitch speed. He is the next…Tim Hudson (if he were in real stadium).

16. OF Lastings Milledge, New York Mets – I’m not entirely sure why I rank Milledge so high in this chunk of cyberspace. He has great athleticism, but he’s not even 20 years old. He dominated the Sally League, but of course, that’s only the Sally League. He does not have great plate discipline, but I’m still ranking him highly because of his tools. I think he can become a pretty good player someday but then again, he might be a bust. He is the next…Jose Guillen.

17. SP Adam Miller, Cleveland Indians – This guy has great stuff and is quite comparable to Felix Hernandez, but is not quite at that level. He is a tall Texan drafted out of high school and should be dominating because he has all the stuff: velocity, command, and well, stuff. I would like to see Miller dominate at higher and higher levels, but right now he is pretty darn good. He is the next…Kerry Wood.

Feel free to leave comments in the forums or e-mail Daniel at daniel@athomeplate.com.

 

 

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