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Top Prospects
- Part II
by Daniel
Paulling
May 9, 2005
This is part two of a three part series (see part
one). I will list 51 guys that I think are the top prospects
in baseball. With each player I made a comparison to a player in
the Major Leagues. In one case, I compared Joel Guzman to Juan Gonzalez.
I do not think that Guzman is going to play right field I just think
that he can produce statistics similar to Juan Gone.
18. SP Chad Billingsley, Los Angeles Dodgers –
Billingsley is another kid in the Felix Hernandez/Adam Miller territory.
The Dodgers have had several great drafts which are beginning to
pay off. Billingsley has dominated up to AA, and his time at AA
was not bad, as he maintained the ratios he had at previous levels.
The Dodgers would be wise to play Billingsley at AA for much of
the year with a late promotion to AAA. His control could use improvement,
so the Dodgers shouldn’t rush him. He is the (also) next...Kerry
Wood.
19. SP Jeff Niemann, Tampa Bay Devil Rays – Just you wait and
see - this guy will make a tremendous name for himself this year.
The Devil Rays drafted him in the first round out of Rice and just
recently signed him. Many scouts love this guy, and so do I. I look
for him to be a future ace, and quite a dominator along with Kazmir,
if he can only keep healthy. He is the next…Curt Schilling.
20. OF Jeremy Hermida, Florida Marlins – This kid has such
a beautiful swing- a natural one. He added a little bit of power
to his game, mainly because of all those doubles he is capable of
hitting. He has a strong OBP, strong slugging percentage, and a
few stolen bases to boot. I expect him to be a great all around
player, offense, defense, and on the bases. He is the next…Steve
Finley.
21. SP Jose Capellan, Milwaukee Brewers – The Brewers traded
a stud closer to get Jose Capellan last year and many lambasted
the deal from the Brewers’ perspective. I’m not sure how
many people still feel that way. This youngster throws near 100
MPH gas with a good breaking ball. He probably does not have a career
as a starter before him, but a pretty darn good closer. He is
the next…Billy Wagner.
22. C Daric Barton, Oakland A’s – The A’s nabbed
Barton from the Cardinals in the Mark Mulder deal and Barton is
the determining factor in this deal. The backstop shows tremendous
potential in reaching base, but I would not expect much in terms
of power. He has the ability to swing at only strikes; he never
seems to get fooled chasing something out of the zone. If you want
to build your team with OBP, this is the guy to deal for. The A’s
have several catchers, so they might move Barton over to first and
he won’t embarrass himself as a hitter there either. He
is the next…Mike Sweeney.
23. 1B Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies – Power and lots
of it. That’s the scouting report on this fellow. Scouts just
admire his power, and they have definite reason to. Howard also
has a good eye, but not too much in terms of hitting for average.
I like his chances to be a big time power hitter at the highest
level, but I’m not sure where his batting average will stand.
He plays first base but does not have the ability to convert to
another position, something that could spell doom for his chances
of playing for the Phillies. He is the next…Adam Dunn.
24. 1B Brian Dopirak, Chicago Cubs – Dopirak had a difficult
time in 2003 playing in A ball. He was not hitting that well at
all, but repeating A ball must have done something for him. Last
year he hit .307 with 38 doubles and 39 homers, which are good indicators
for future success if he can keep it up. I like his chances to hit,
and he should be very valuable to a major league club. He is
the next…Jeff Bagwell.
25. OF Carlos Quentin, Arizona Diamondbacks – He is a pretty
darn good player, having come back from Tommy John surgery with
as powerful an arm as he has. Also, he has good range, but the best
part about him is his bat. Quentin has a very quick bat, and he
produces some power. Look for him to be an amazing hitter at the
highest level; he just needs to avoid injuries. He is the next…Garret
Anderson.
26. SS Hanley Ramirez, Boston Red Sox – I’m not quite
sure why the Red Sox signed Edgar Renteria to a four year deal with
this guy waiting in the wings. For the 2005 season, expect Ramirez
to play in AAA, knocking on the door to get into the Majors. The
Red Sox’s best bet is to convert him to second, which would
give them good defense up the middle. He has all the tools to be
a good player, plus the work ethic; he just needs to keep it going
in Triple A. Expect good things out of this guy. He is the next…Nomar
Garciaparra.
27. SP Mike Hinckley, Washington Nationals – Hinckley doesn’t
have a 99 MPH fastball like everyone else already on this list.
Instead, he throws in the low 90’s and throws inside, which
most young pitchers are afraid to do. The lefty also has a changeup
and curveball and should be ready for the Show fulltime by 2006.
He is the next…Tom Glavine.
28. SP Edwin Jackson, Los Angeles Dodgers – The Dodgers
rushed Jackson along and did not give him any seasoning in AAA Las
Vegas before calling him up to the Bigs. If he had pitched the entire
year in Triple A like he should have, Jackson would have been ready
for the Big Leagues this year, but I believe he should start a few
more games there in Las Vegas. He is the next…Matt Clement.
29. SS JJ Hardy, Milwaukee Brewers – Hardy is a very hard
working guy that tries his best to compete on the field. He has
the instincts and the heart to do very well, so he’s like David
Eckstein in this mold. He has very good defense, with a little bit
of pop and some plate discipline. He is not a future superstar,
but he is almost ready to produce .280/15 in the Show. He is
the next…Milton Bradley (minus the problems).
30. OF Jeremy Reed, Seattle Mariners – Reed is a very likely
to be the American League Rookie of the Year, as he is going to
be the starting center fielder for the Mariners and hitting between
Ichiro and Adrian Beltre. He has produced very well throughout the
minors with a high OBP, but never that many homers. He has good
stolen base numbers, low strikeouts, and decent slugging percentage,
which means that he, should be slotted into the number two hole.
He is the next…Michael Young.
31. SP Zach Duke, Pittsburgh Pirates – Duke dominated competition
last year, becoming one of the better left-handed prospects in baseball.
2005 will be the year that Duke shows his true colors, because he
will be in AAA and he will either show himself to be a true prospect
or something else. He will be hard pressed, because he doesn’t
dominate with a high 80’s fastball and he does not have a great
changeup. A dominating year at AAA will put him higher up the list
and with a chance to play in the Majors. He is the next…Tom
Glavine.
32. SP Gavin Floyd, Philadelphia Phillies – Floyd dominated
Double A last year, which bodes well for his future. He did not
dominate Triple A, but he did quite well in a stint at the Major
League level. If I were the Phillies, I would send Floyd to Triple
A until needed a bit later in the season. He has some control issues
and definitely should repeat Triple A, but I’m not the one
in charge of that. He is the next…Rick Ankiel (minus extreme
control problems).
33. OF Nick Swisher, Oakland Athletics – On-base machine!
Swisher has done nothing but get on base in the minor leagues, but
his batting average has been low, which is good. This shows that
Swisher is a walk machine, a very good sign. Expect him to hit around
.240-.250 this year, but he should eventually increase that to .270
as he learns a little more aggression. His OBP should be around
the .370-.380 mark, which means he’ll be a pretty good number
two hitter in the near future. He is the next…Johnny Damon
(minus a few steals).
34. 3B Eric Duncan, New York Yankees – For those of you
that say the Yankees have no prospects, I give you Eric Duncan.
Duncan is very impressive as a hitter, with plenty of potential
to get on base. The only problem with his game is that he does not
have the ability to play good third base defense. The Yankees probably
keep him there to increase his trade value; if they were going to
keep him, they would probably move him to second. He is the next…Bernie
Williams.
Feel free to leave comments in the forums or
e-mail Daniel at daniel@athomeplate.com.
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