This time of year, most analysts look at teams and what they might be doing before the trade deadline on July 31st. I hate to make predictions of where players are going to go because it makes me look bad. Besides, I don’t have the same kind of inside dope that those columnists have. Those columns are available everywhere as well, so I thought I would do a quick rundown of the prominent players that could be on the block and what teams could expect from them. I will organize it by teams, but they will be the teams they currently play for instead of the teams where they could go.
New York Mets
Cliff Floyd (RF, LF) - Usually, teams in first place don’t trade regulars, but the Mets have plenty of outfielders. Floyd has always tantalized with his talent, but has never been able to stay on the field. Sure enough, through nearly 100 games, he has played in only 64 games. Floyd’s .797 OPS is also nothing to write home about for a corner outfielder, but you never know whether he can get hot down the stretch. The Mets would like to bolster their pitching staff and a hitting starved club might give them something decent for Floyd.
Atlanta Braves
Andruw Jones (CF) - The Braves are in an intriguing situation. They are five games out of the wild card, but five games under .500 for the season. They will not win their fourteenth consecutive division championship unless they win about thirty in a row. They could go either way at the deadline depending on how they play over the next week and a half. If the Braves choose to sell they could choose to deal the Gold Glove centerfielder. It’s funny, but ESPN.com has him projected to hit 38 homers and drive in 140 runs. That represents a step down from last year when he dominated.
John Smoltz (SP) - Smoltz has yo-yoed between the rotation and the bullpen over the last few years and mentioned that he would accept a trade if it would help the Braves. Smoltz is 7-5 with a 3.41 ERA, so plenty of teams would be glad to add him to their rotation if the Braves choose to surrender.
Philadelphia Phillies
Bobby Abreu (RF) - The Phillies are definitely in sell mode, but Abreu complicated things by demanding any team that trades for him to pick up his 2008 option. The option totals 16 million. Abreu is not a 16 million dollar player, but he is a lot more valuable than most analysts are making him out to be. His OBP is nearing .450 which makes him the most underrated player in the National League.
Pat Burrell (LF) - There was a time when people thought Burrell was going to be one of the top five or ten hitters in the game. Those days are gone, but Burrell does have 20 homers and could come close to 40 with a hot streak. Still, he is on pace to strike out more than 125 times for the seventh year in a row. Burrell is not as good as Abreu, but he is cheaper financially.
Washington Nationals
Alfonso Soriano (LF, 2B) - I’m not a big Soriano fan, but he appears to be the hottest trade commodity this season. He hit his 30th home run on July 18 and already has more walks than he has ever had. He also will strike out more than 100 times and has never met a pitch he didn’t like. Teams will also have to find a way to re-sign the free agent to be after a season where he could hit 50 home runs.
Livan Hernandez (SP) - Livan seems like he’s been around forever, but the Cuban defector has only been around since 1997. Hernandez always eats innings and this season is no different. He’s at almost 120 innings as of July 18th which means he should hit 200 innings yet again. Teams with problems at the bottom of their rotation would probably welcome Hernandez.
Chad Cordero (CL) - Cordero seems to be the only reliever left after that huge Reds deal, but he also could bring the most in return. The Nats are looking to rebuild, so bringing in more young talent would be good. Closers are always in demand this time of year.
Chicago Cubs
Greg Maddux (SP) - Maddux is on the downside of his career, but he would make a good end of the rotation starter for a team making a playoff push. A 7-10 record and 4.99 ERA just doesn’t seem Maddux like, but in this day and age every team would love to have that from their fifth starter.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Craig Wilson (OF, 1B) - The Pirates are in the toilet and the fact that they can’t find a place for this guy to play is one of the reasons why. He’s played in only 78 games despite having better than .820 OPS. He would seem to fit into the Aubrey Huff kind of mold as a solid hitter that can provide most lineups with quality depth.
Roberto Hernandez (RP) - Hernandez has experienced a renaissance in recent years and it continued this season in Pittsburgh. Hernandez isn’t closer material anymore, but he would make a nice 7th inning reliever for a good team.
Salomon Torres (RP) - He isn’t having a good year this year, but the reliever came back a few years ago from retirement in fine fashion. He might be a cheaper option for a team looking to capture lightening in a bottle.
San Diego Padres
Scott Linebrink (RP) - The Padres are in first place like the Mets, but that is where the similarities end. Linebrink is a quality relief pitcher that they don’t want to part with, but if he can bring in a third baseman that can hit they would gladly make that sacrifice.
San Francisco Giants
Jason Schmidt (SP) - He has been on this list two years in a row. He is 6-6, but he has thrown more than 130 innings and has an ERA around 3.00. The Giants desperately need to get younger and Schmidt is their best bargaining chip. A top of the rotation starter commands big time compensation at trade time.
Always Interesting
Like I said, I’ve stopped predicting where these players will go and if they will be dealt at all. The wild card has complicated the trading deadline process considerably. Normally, teams like the Braves, Astros, and Brewers would be in definite sell mode. Now, they think they have a chance to be the wild card, so they look to be buyers at this stage. Yet, a quick losing streak could drive any one of them to be sellers. It’s anyone’s best guess. Next time, we’ll look at the American League.
Scott Barzilla is the author of “Checks and Imbalances,” “The State of Baseball Management,” and is looking forward to his release of “On the Outside Looking” at the end of 2006.
