Fantasy:
Upper Round Talent, Middle Round Selection
by Jeff Curry
March 16, 2006
Sleeper,
undervalued, player to watch, draft steal, underrated. Call them
whatever you want, but anyone that has played fantasy baseball knows
that leagues are won and lost because of this type of player. Players
are usually already pre-ranked so just about anyone can get through
the first 4 rounds or so without any major screw-ups. Choosing between
David Wright and Jason Bay for this season probably isn’t
going to make or break anyone’s team. The difference between
the person that just wants to play fantasy baseball and the person
that wants to WIN their fantasy baseball league is identifying and
getting the guys in the middle rounds that will get you upper round
results. You can’t always expect Derrek Lee in 2005 but there
are players with significant upside that are available in the middle
and lower rounds. To pick the right guys, you need to figure out
who has the potential for a big year and is worth taking a chance
on.
I’m
going to call these guys Undervalued. They are players you’ve
heard of before that are primed to put up career numbers this year.
I’ve intentionally avoided players that aren’t guaranteed
to start the season in the majors or don’t have any real major
league experience. I also stayed away from some of the young phenoms
that are already causing a buzz this spring, like Felix Hernandez
and Jeremy Hermida, because someone else is likely to take a chance
on them before I would.
Looking
at the pre-season rankings from several sources, here is my 2006
Undervalued Starting Lineup:
Catcher – Ramon Hernandez – Baltimore Orioles
Hernandez gets a new club with both a better lineup and a hitter’s
park. Ramon also missed almost 60 games last year with a wrist injury
which skews his totals. He came back and hit 349 with five homers
and 20 RBI in the last month of the season. A platoon situation
with Javy Lopez is the only concern but Javy’s knees and the
4.5 million the O’s are paying Hernandez this year say he’ll
get more than enough at bats to start for your fantasy team.
Top Reserve – Kenji Johjima – Seattle Mariners
First Base – Brad Wilkerson – Texas Rangers
A bit of a reach at 1B but he still qualifies in most leagues despite
the fact he’ll patrol centerfield in Arlington this year.
Wilkerson has been a popular sleeper choice for the past three years.
Take a look at his 248 average and 11 home runs last year and you
want to put him right back on the scrap heap. What’s different
about 2006? For starters, the move from RFK to The Ballpark at Arlington.
Not just the stadium, but add a stacked Texas lineup and you can
pencil him in for a breakthrough. The power should be back (32 HRs
in ’04) now that last year’s troubled shoulder has healed.
Bring on the runs and RBIs and small increase in his average.
Top Reserve – Mike Jacobs – Florida Marlins
Second Base – Mark Loretta – Boston Red Sox
He hit 335, had 16 HRs, 76 RBIs, and scored 108 runs. No, not last
year or he wouldn’t be on this list. Those are 2004 numbers
and his 2003 numbers prove it wasn’t a fluke. Another refugee
from Petco Park, Loretta joins an all new Red Sox infield. With
an influx of young talent, second base should be a little deeper
this year than in years past, but in Loretta you get a known commodity.
He missed 8 weeks with an injury last year, so a healthy season
in the Red Sox lineup should bring a return to his old form.
Top Reserve – Rickie Weeks – Milwaukee Brewers
Shortstop – Jhonny Peralta – Cleveland Indians
When a shortstop in his first full season in the major leagues ranks
10th in the AL in slugging percentage, someone is going to notice.
But with all the bigger name shortstops out there, chances are Peralta’s
going to be around for awhile in your draft. His major concern is
that he’s a middle infielder who doesn’t contribute
much to your stolen base totals. If you miss out on the big boys,
take a look at his power numbers (24 HRs 520 SLG%) and pick up your
speed somewhere else.
Top Reserve – Clint Barmes – Colorado Rockies
Third Base – Chad Tracy – Arizona Diamondbacks
With Troy Glaus moving to the Great White North, Tracy takes over
the hot corner in Arizona. Tracy played third in the minors, but
shuffled between first and rightfield last year. Returning to his
comfort zone and playing at a shallower fantasy position should
move him up the draft board. Even at last years numbers (308 average
and 27 HRs) he makes a good fantasy starter. Any improvement over
last year makes him a great pick.
Top Reserve – Aubrey Huff – Tampa Bay Devil
Rays
Outfield
Matt Holliday – Colorado Rockies
Tough to say that a player that hit 307 last year is underrated,
but in many places Holliday fits the bill. It’s the mere 68
runs scored and 19 HRs that keep him out of the upper echelon of
outfielders. Holliday did miss a month of the season but the biggest
bump in his 2006 numbers should come as a result of another year
of experience for himself and his young supporting cast. At least
one Rockie has to make the list and Holliday can contribute in all
categories.
Vernon
Wells – Toronto Blue Jays
All the Jay’s moves this offseason have given Wells his best
shot to make good on the promise he showed in 2003. Vernon was only
3 RBIs short of 100 in 2005 but his 269 average was tough to stomach.
A strained quad might keep him out of the World Baseball Classic
but shouldn’t affect his fantasy season. With a better supporting
cast and a return to his 285 career average, this could be the year
we’ve been waiting for.
Rocco
Baldelli – Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Even though Baldelli missed all of 2005 with knee and shoulder injuries,
the Rays decided to sign him to a 6 year/32 million dollar contract
this offseason. Who are we to question the wisdom of this storied
franchise? Remember he is only 24 years old and can contribute in
5 categories. Rocco has a 285 average with 27 homers, 152 RBIs and
44 steals in 292 games. There is plenty of room for those numbers,
even in a crowded D-Ray outfield.
Top
Reserve – Magglio Ordonez – Detroit Tigers
Starting
Pitchers
Chris Young - San Diego Padres
Young is a fly ball pitcher that will benefit greatly moving from
Texas to San Diego. He was streaky last year but finished with 12
wins in 31 starts. The 4.26 ERA doesn’t impress but if he
brings his 7.5 K’s per 9 innings with him to Petco, his ERA
will drop significantly. In his 38 career starts for Texas, Young’s
ERA was more than 1 run lower on the road.
Matt
Cain – San Francisco Giants
Cain only pitched in 7 games last year but earned a 2-1 record with
30 strikeouts and a 0.93 WHIP in those appearances. He’s slotted
to be the Giants number 4 starter this year and should be helped
by a healthy Giants lineup. Cain is only 21 but last year’s
success should translate into a steady 2006.
Doug
Davis – Milwaukee Brewers
Davis only managed a .500 record last year going 11 and 11 in 2005.
His strikeout numbers stand out as he ranked 3rd in the NL with
208 and had 8.4 K’s per 9 innings. With a young improving
Milwaukee lineup and the healthy return of their ace, Ben Sheets,
Davis should start moving on up in the wins column.
Jeremy
Bonderman – Detroit Tigers
Despite pitching for the Tigers, Bonderman put together a quality
season in 2005. Jeremy battled injuries at the end of last year
but finished with a winning record and 14 wins. Only 23, big things
have been expected of him, but he has had little support so far.
With a new manager, a new number one starter, and any improvement
over last year’s Tiger offense, look for fewer losses and
a lower ERA in 2006.
Top Reserve – Oliver Perez – Pittsburgh Pirates
Closer
Tom Gordon – Philadelphia Phillies
In 1998, Flash was converted from a starter to a closer and rewarded
the Red Sox with 46 saves while winning the AL Rolaids Relief Award.
He never saw that success again and after bouncing around the league
for a few seasons, he settled down and proved to be an effective
setup man in New York. Now Gordon takes over the closer duties in
Philadelphia. He’s got the track record, control, and strikeout
ability (1.09 WHIP and 7.7 K/9 in 2005) to be a successful closer.
He won’t make the Phanatics forget about Billy Wagner, but
if he can stay healthy he’s a worthy investment.
Top Reserve – Eddie Guardado – Seattle
Mariners
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