Last time, I talked about the fielding on the Yankees according to the Fielding Bible. It might seem like I’m falling in love with this book, because it shines a light on part of a player’s game we don’t get to see. Certainly, the good folks at ESPN rarely talk that much about fielding outside of the Web Gems they feature on Baseball Tonight. When the Arizona Diamondbacks traded Troy Glaus for Orlando Hudson, most people assumed they were just trying to save money and when you compare their numbers offensively you would tend to agree with them.
OBP SLG SEC RC RCAA WARP
Troy Glaus .363 .522 .428 106 25 5.6
Orlando Hudson .315 .412 .221 60 -5 6.0
For those of you wondering, WARP stands for wins above replacement player and can be found at Baseball Prospectus.com. So, how in the heck can Hudson be a better player than Troy Glaus when Glaus is better overall offensively and better than the average third basemen (while Hudson was slightly below average)? Part of that answer comes in a debate about positional analysis that Matt Souders brought to us. Unfortunately, that can’t explain all of it. The other part comes from the glove. Here is a look at the Diamondbacks defense last year.
+/-
Tony Clark +4
Craig Counsell +35
Troy Glaus -12
Royce Clayton -6
Luis Gonzalez +7
Quinten McCracken 0
Shawn Green -4
Overall +24
We can probably assume that the centerfield defense was actually below average, but none of their centerfielders qualified. The club is making several defensive changes this year. Craig Counsell shifts over to shortstop. Even though he likely won’t be as effective at short, he has played the position before and he likely will be better than Royce Clayton. Andy Green takes over for Troy Glaus at third base. Eric Byrnes replaces the plethora of centerfielders that went last season. Following is a quick summary of their season with the ML rank.
+/- Rank
Corner Infielders -5 22
Middle Infielders +30 2
Outfielders -24 25
Overall +1 18
The huge difference likely comes in the undocumented centerfield play. Jose Cruz Jr., Quinten McCracken, and Luis Terrano were either out of position, career bench players, or inexperienced. We cannot underestimate the impact that Orlando Hudson and Eric Byrnes will have on the defense. Byrnes is not terrific, but he isn’t terrible either. Based purely on last season’s numbers, this is what will happen to the defense.
+/-
Tony Clark +4
Orlando Hudson +20
Andy Green 0
Craig Counsell +35
Luis Gonzalez +7
Eric Byrnes +6
Shawn Green -4
Overall +58
While this kind of increase might seem outrageous, it shouldn’t be outrageous to see the Diamondbacks go from +1 overall to +21 overall or better. This could put them in the top ten defensively and really help the pitchers out. Of course, the Blue Jays could go in the other direction. They have to replace the best second basemen in baseball over the last three years defensively. Corey Koskie was also well above average at third base last season.
We are learning more and more every year about how fielding interacts with pitching. The Diamondbacks were definitely behind the curve in that category. While Voros McCracken’s research on batting average on balls in play has been somewhat exposed, it’s still a baseline for looking at pitchers. Usually, pitchers tend to mirror the team average on BABIP.
SO/9 BB/9 SO/BB HR/9
Arizona 6.41 3.32 1.93 1.19
National League 6.57 3.29 2.00 1.02
These numbers show that the Diamondbacks are slightly below average in the defense independent pitching statistics, so they desperately need their fielders to get to more balls. The Diamondbacks 4.87 ERA was 14th in the National League in 2005. Their home park does stimulate more offense than normal, but much of that can be seen in the overall defensive rating we saw above coupled with below average rating in the DIPS.
If Orlando Hudson, Eric Byrnes, and Andy Green come through for them, their pitching staff could go from below average to above average overnight. With their offense and the general malaise of the National League West, that could send them straight into the pennant race in September.
Scott Barzilla is the author of “Checks and Imbalances,” “The State of Baseball Management,” and is looking forward to his release of “On the Outside Looking” at the end of 2006.
